The Conservatives at the test of the elections in England and Wales

Polling stations are open for local elections in England and Wales: an election that will lead to the renewal of 2,600 seats in 107 councils. Eleven mayors are also due to be elected, including that of London, and a parliamentary by-election will also be held in the constituency of Blackpool South.

For the moment, the polls announce a negative result for the Conservative Party. According to Guardian, in view of the next general election, Labor is estimated at 43.8%, while the Tories would be at 23.3%. In this sense, today's election is considered a test for the current governing party. Again according to what was reported by Guardianthe Conservatives today risk losing up to 500 seats in local councils.

The Labor leader Keir Starmer, hopes for a good result. “A vote for Labor is for a plan to bring our economy back to working people's interests and restore a sense of service to our politics,” she said on Wednesday evening. “That change starts today and you can vote for it. You can vote to stop the chaos, turn the page and rebuild your country,” she added. “People everywhere should vote Conservative,” the prime minister declared Rishi Sunak.

While waiting for the definitive results, which should arrive over the weekend, it is possible to make some brief considerations. First, it's good to be careful with surveys. It is well known that the Tories are going through a difficult phase. However, it will be necessary to understand whether the debacle predicted by the revelations will occur or not. From this point of view, it is advisable to tread carefully.

Secondly, if the Conservatives were to suffer a clear defeat, it will be necessary to understand what the impact could be on the leadership of Sunak. The current prime minister arrived in Downing Street in October 2022 after the very short term of Liz Trusswhich had in turn taken over from Boris Johnson a few weeks earlier. It is therefore clear that, if the results turn out to be better than expected for the conservatives, the current prime minister could (even only partially) strengthen himself. On the other hand, should the polls be right, it is not excluded that a showdown could start within the Conservative Party, leading it into a new phase of instability.