Concluded last night with the acceptance speech of the nomination on the part of Kamala Harristhe time has come to take stock of the political situation of the last Convention national dem. Most of the media did nothing but celebrate her, claiming that the entire Democratic Party would now be solidly united around the vice president. The climate of “joy” that would have characterized the entire event was also greatly emphasized. Yet, it is perhaps useful to go beyond the rhetoric. If it is certainly true that the Harris has gained ground in the polls and has raised a whopping $500 million in just a few weeks, all that glitters is probably not gold.
Let’s start by saying that, beyond the “joy” in front of the camera, from Convention a sense of uneasiness also emerged. In his speech on Wednesday evening, Bill Clinton He warned Dems against thinking they already have victory in the bag. “We’ve seen more than one election slip through our fingers when we thought it couldn’t happen, when people got distracted by phony issues or got too confident,” he said, referring to 2016, when his wife Hillary was defeated by Donald Trumpafter all the media and all the polls had given her as the winner for months. A call for caution had also come, on Tuesday, from Barack Obama. “This is still going to be a close race in a country divided in two,” he said. Moreover, on Monday, Reuters reported that, according to the president of the pro-Harris Super Pac Future Forward, Chauncey McLeanthe confidential polls would be “much less rosy” for the vice president than the public ones. In short, the words of Clinton And Obamaadded to those of McLeanmake it clear that, beyond the euphoria displayed, there is concern in the Democratic Party. This does not mean, mind you, that the Harris is electorally doomed. It means, if anything, that the November game is much more open than a certain narrative, a bit simplistic, is trying to make us believe. On the other hand, even looking at the public polls, it is not that, for the Harristhe road is all downhill. According to the average of RealClearPoliticsthe vice president’s current advantage in Michigan and Wisconsin is in fact much smaller than that held there by Joe Biden And Hillary Clinton in August 2020 and August 2016 respectively.
A second problematic element emerged from the Convention is that the only truly cohesive factor for the Donkey seems to be anti-Trumpism. “The opposition to Trump It is the unifying force of the Convention National Democratic Party,” he reported on Wednesday, Political. Now, it is certainly not surprising that at a Convention dem attack the Republican Party candidate. The point is another. And that is, that, beyond the opposition to the tycoon, it is not clear what other factor is really capable of keeping the Dems united. Besides, there are several internal divisions. First of all, the pro-Palestinian far left continues to appear agitated. It held demonstrations in Chicago both on Monday and Sunday. Furthermore, on Tuesday it interrupted an event in which the vice president was speaking. Harris, Tim Walz. All this, while the pro-Pal movement had asked the Democratic National Committee that one of its representatives could speak at the ConventionThe request was rejected and so, on Wednesday evening, pro-Palestinian protesters staged a sit-in, which was also attended by the far-left MP Ilhan Omar. A sit-in that also received the support of her colleague Alexandria Ocasio-Cortezwho, on Monday evening, had held a speech in support of the Harris at the Convention. In short, a full-blown short circuit.
The situation must be monitored carefully. It is true that the Pro Pals are a minority. However, they could prove decisive in November in some key states, such as Michigan and Georgia. Let us remember that, in 2016, Hillary Clinton lost precisely because a few thousand voters of Bernie Sanders – in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – voted for Trump rather than for her. It is also worth noting that several centrist Democratic deputies were very disappointed by the fact that, as her vice-candidate, Harris I preferred Walz to the governor of Pennsylvania Josh Shapiro. Finally, be careful of the most loyal followers of Joe Bidenwho may not be very many but who are there anyway. Loyal supporters who, in addition to seeing their favourite torpedoed in an opaque manner, also saw him further humiliated on Monday evening, when his speech was postponed until late at night. Who knows, perhaps in the secrecy of the ballot box, they will end up playing some nasty tricks on Harris.
After all, the shadow of Biden represents a further issue that emerged from this Convention. Although all the main speakers praised him, they tried to emphasize his political legacy as little as possible. It is no mystery that the current president is unpopular in the polls. The problem, for the Harrisis that she is a vice president in office. In her speech on Thursday, she promised aid to small and medium-sized businesses, as well as a “middle-class tax cut.” But the fact remains that she is in power Now. And that, according to the site Fivethirtyeighthis approval rating as vice president continues to be quite low. The same goes for foreign policy. On Thursday, the Harris has indeed said that “now is the time to reach a hostage agreement and a ceasefire” in Gaza. However, his administration has been trying to broker one for months, without success. The legacy of Bidenin the long run, therefore risks weighing down the Democratic candidate, a bit like what happened in 1968 to Hubert Humphreywho was crippled by the unpopularity of Lyndon Johnsonof which she was vice. This is a knot that the current Democratic candidate will have to address in the coming weeks. On the one hand, she needs to distance herself from Biden; on the other hand, she cannot do so, since her deputy is in office.
All this to say that, beyond the media hype that has surrounded the Convention of Chicago, the nodes, for the Harristhey all remain on the table. Trumpon the other hand, has its problems, of course. But precisely for this reason it would be best to proceed with caution. For weeks, we have been told that the vice president is going very strong, that she already has victory almost in her pocket. This is not the case. The game, as we were saying, remains wide open, just as it was when the Democratic candidate was Biden. The important thing now is to try to analyze the situation with a cool head. For this reason, it is perhaps finally time to tear away the veil of media molasses woven by many media in recent weeks.
