The offensive of the Syrian rebels and their entry into Aleppo will have significant geopolitical repercussions. Given that the situation is still evolving, it is quite clear that the Damascus government is in difficulty. Among other things, it should be underlined that some of the acronyms, to which the insurgents in the field belong, have historical ties with Turkey. Which suggests that, perhaps, the ongoing offensive took place with Ankara’s approval, despite the latter saying it had tried to dissuade the rebels from acting. It is in fact not unlikely that Recep Tayyip Erdogan saw a window of opportunity following an assessment of the overall picture.
First of all, Iran, which is one of Damascus’ main Middle Eastern allies, emerged greatly weakened by the crisis it had with Israel. Not only that. The Jewish State has also significantly weakened two Iranian proxies, such as Hezbollah and Hamas, decapitating their leaderships. Among other things, he is about to take office in the White House Donald Trumpwho has already made it known that he wants to restore the policy of “maximum pressure” on Tehran. Secondly, the sultan knows very well that Vladimir Putin is currently distracted by the war in Ukraine: and this is exactly one of the reasons why the Russian president is currently struggling to attend Bashar al Assad against the rebels. In short, in light of these considerations, it is not unlikely that Erdogan wanted to exploit the situation to its advantage, to cripple Russian and Iranian influence in the region.
Of course, some might argue that, in recent years, the Turkish president had significantly improved his relations with Moscow and Tehran. On the other hand, it should be remembered that the sultan is accustomed to “diplomatic revolutions”. In 2022, for example, it opened to Saudi Arabia after years of frost. Not only that. The regional diplomacy of Erdogan is often influenced by changing of the guard at the White House. So, as we have seen, it is possible that it is repositioning itself in consideration of the return of Trump and, consequently, of a severe line of the United States towards Tehran.
Finally, one cannot fail to notice a Ukrainian ramification of the current Syrian crisis. As known, Trump intends to start peace negotiations. Well, what is happening in Aleppo significantly weakens the bargaining power of the Tsar in view of the negotiations. Not only because it now has a second military front to pay attention to, but also because its two main Middle Eastern allies – Syria and Iran – appear increasingly weak. Without forgetting that, in these two and a half years, Tehran has sent military drones to Moscow to strike Ukraine. Of course, we will have to see if Russia will be able to make AD regain ground militarily Assad in the next few weeks. However, should this fail, this could give a Trump more room for maneuver when negotiating Ukraine. The same Erdogan he could take advantage of this to carve out the role of main mediator at the negotiating table with Kiev.
Let us not forget that last Tuesday, the day before the start of the rebel offensive, the United States bombed an arms depot belonging to Iranian militias in Syrian territory. Another element must be connected to this element: last week, the American national security advisor in pectore, Mike Waltzsaid his team is working shoulder to shoulder with that of the outgoing administration. It cannot therefore be ruled out that the strategy of Trump is exactly that of exchanging pieces with Putin on different tables. By narrowing its room for maneuver in Syria, the White House aims to strengthen its negotiating position on Ukraine. If this is the case, the challenge for Trump if anything, it will be to find a balance between Türkiye and Russia. But this, at least for now, is another story.
