The rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates is worsening between Yemen, Sudan and the Horn of Africa, worrying Washington and complicating US strategy in the Middle East
The rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates is growing: a circumstance that worries Washington. The casus belli took place in the intricate context of the war in Yemen. Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have historically been allies in supporting the Yemeni government against the Houthis, backed by Iran. However, Emirati support for the Southern Transitional Council separatists has gradually angered the Saudis, who, on Tuesday, bombed the port of Mukalla. According to Riyadh, war material sent from Abu Dhabi in support of the separatists had entered this facility: an accusation which, however, was rejected by the Emirates. The Emirates then announced the withdrawal of its anti-terrorism personnel from Yemen. “In light of recent developments and their potential implications for the security and effectiveness of counter-terrorism missions, the Ministry of Defense announces the dismissal of counter-terrorism personnel remaining in Yemen on its own initiative, so as to ensure the safety of its personnel,” the Emirati government said.
But be careful: the Yemeni crisis represents only one of the fronts of friction between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. In fact, the two capitals appear increasingly at loggerheads even in Sudan. Here, in the complicated context of the local civil war, the Saudis support the Sudanese Armed Forces, while the Emirates support the Rapid Support Forces. Recall that Mohammad bin Salman expressed his concerns about the situation in Sudan to Donald Trump during his recent trip to Washington. A further front of friction is then linked to the Horn of Africa. Abu Dhabi has strengthened its relations with Ethiopia and Somaliland, while Saudi Arabia has focused more on Somalia. Not surprisingly, Riyadh has criticized Israel’s recent recognition of Somaliland.
In short, the rivalry between Saudis and Emirates continues to grow. And this potentially represents a problem for the Trump administration, which aims to revive and expand the Abraham Accords: agreements to which the Emirates joined in 2020 and with respect to which the Saudis have not completely dissolved their reservations. Washington is therefore trying to prevent the relationship between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi from derailing. It is probably no coincidence that, on Tuesday, the US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, had a phone call with the Emirati Foreign Minister and another with the Saudi one. Moreover, the Trump administration needs relations between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi to remain strong, also to maintain pressure on Iran regarding the thorny nuclear issue. For Washington, the situation is therefore very delicate: its project of stabilizing the entire Middle Eastern region is at stake.
