The Russian army now seems one step away from achieving its largest conquest in Ukrainian territory in the last two years. But the price of this advance – a city reduced to rubble and strewn with corpses – anticipates a deeper question than the territorial one: who among Fly And Kiev Will it consume its military and human resources first?
With the war entering its fifth year, the Kremlin is betting on the strength of its war machine, supported by a huge industrial apparatus and a population almost quadruple that of Ukraine. Kiev, on the contrary, aims to wear down the enemy, trusting in the continuity of economic and military support from its Western allies.
As the Walla Street Journal writes, for months the fiercest clash has been concentrated in the surrounding area of Pokrovska mining town in the southeastern Ukraine which before the invasion had around 60 thousand inhabitants. Moscow’s troops advance with infantry assaults through the surrounding fields and villages, while Kiev’s forces respond with explosives-laden drones to contain the pressure. Today, according to several Ukrainian departments, the Russians are now superior in numbers within the city, with their drones dominating the airspace. Military analysts believe Pokrovsk could fall within a few weeks.
The Russian Ministry of Defense announced that its units are proceeding north, clearing Ukrainian positions and isolating the last pockets of resistance. On the opposite side, the president Volodymyr Zelensky and its commanders deny encirclement, but the question remains open as to how long the troops can resist before being forced to retreat. The taking of Pokrovsk it would represent Moscow’s most significant territorial success since the conquest of Bakhmutwhich occurred over two years ago. A victory that Vladimir Putin uses as a political argument, supporting – even in conversations with Donald Trump – that the Russian triumph is now inevitable and that continuing to send weapons to Kiev is just a waste. Zelensky, replying, commented: «They have no results to “sell” to the Americans».
The strategic objective of Kremlin – annihilate theUkraine as Sovereign state and reduce it under one’s influence – remains distant, but the conquest of Pokrovsk it would serve to consolidate Russian control over the eastern province of Donetskwhere only a few large cities in the north remain under Ukrainian rule. Despite the Russia enjoys a numerical and industrial advantage, signs of fatigue are emerging: economic growth is slowing and several regions have reduced recruitment bonuses for new recruits. The sanctions promised by United States have not materialized, but any harsher restrictive measures could undermine the country’s ability to sustain the conflict in the long term.
Kiev also faces serious difficulties: with a population four times smaller than Russia’s, the country suffers from a dramatic shortage of men. Zelensky he has been criticized several times for having delayed decisions to withdraw from positions that were now indefensible, sacrificing lives for symbolic reasons. “I hope the difficult choices come in time,” said an official 25th Airborne Brigadeengaged right in Pokrovsk. “We cannot continue to exchange human lives for a few kilometers of land.” After almost four years of war, the massive use of drones has not accelerated the advance of the troops, which remains slow and bloody. Since Moscow forces occupied Avdiivkathe Russian army advanced by just 40 kilometers towards Pokrovsk. If Kiev were to withdraw, it would also lose the nearby city of Myrnohradalready partly isolated.
According to Ukrainian military sources, the battle is still open and the defense of the city inflicts heavy losses on the Russians, with approx 50-100 enemy soldiers killed everyday. Some officials speak of a casualty ratio of up to ten to one favoring Ukraine. “In the whole war I have never seen them suffer such losses and continue to push,” said a soldier on the field.Per George Barrosanalyst ofInstitute for the Study of WarPokrovsk will not fall easily: «Russia takes months to conquer smaller cities. Continuing to fight there can wear down the enemy and inflict unsustainable casualties.” However, the soldiers on the front describe a dramatic situation. Supply routes are constantly bombed, charred vehicles litter the access roads and many units have to travel up to 15 kilometers on foot to reach the defensive lines. “The closer you get to Pokrovsk, the more you risk losing equipment and men,” explained an officer 68th Jaeger Brigade.
At the beginning of the conflict, the Ukrainian army tended to defend cities house to house, as happened in Bakhmut. Today, with the evolution of drone warfare, the strategy has changed: to strike the Russians outside of population centers, where moving troops are more exposed. In PokrovskInstead, the desert reigns: the streets are empty, populated only by stray dogs, and the incessant noise of drones marks the time. According to the soldiers, for every Ukrainian aircraft there are ten Russian ones. «They dominate the skies – says an officer -. Their buzz never stops. They have more men, more drones, more vehicles. They try to solve everything with quantity, not with strategy.”
Much of the city is now a gray area, disputed inch by inch. Small groups of Russian infantry, consisting of 200-300 menthey advance slowly and hide in the basement waiting for reinforcements. The Ukrainian units, however, are exhausted: in many departments barely a fifth of the original workforce remains. The fate of Pokrovsk, therefore, it appears as the symbol of a war of attrition that consumes men and resources on both sides. And while the generals discuss strategies and defensive lines, among the rubble of the city only one certainty remains: attrition spares none of the contenders.
