Not just oil: the Middle Eastern conflict affects fertilizers and threatens crops. From urea to phosphates, prices rise by 30-40%, the cascade effect will be felt by consumers.
There war in the Middle East it is having disruptive effects that go far beyond energy shock. One of the most affected sectors is the agricultural sector, with the supply of fertilizers in view of the spring sowings which is going haywire.
The price of urea is flying
Among the main products used in agricultural fields to increase yields is ureaa nitrogen fertilizer composed of ammonia and carbon dioxide, derived from natural gas.
Approximately 45% of world urea production comes from the Persian Gulfwith Qatar and Iran as the absolute protagonists thanks to the largest natural gas field in the world, the Suth Pars/North Dome, the same one attacked on the Iranian side by Israel, with Tehran instead putting the Qatari refining plant offside.
The escalation of the conflict has seen the two main fertilizer indices shoot up, with granular urea in the Middle East which he achieved $665 per ton from the previous $485, while the price of global benchmark scored i $695.
Why urea matters
Urea is the “bread” of plants: Provides necessary nitrogen for leaves, stems and seeds. Without it, yields collapse. About half of the world’s food production today depends on synthetic fertilizers; without urea, wheat, corn, rice and European crops lose productivity.
Crops such as wheat and corn lose up to 50% of production without nitrogen fertilization. In Italy, where agricultural urea has gone from 55 to 75 euros per quintal, the upcoming spring sowing of corn and soybeans risks being compromised.
The other fertilizers
However, it is not only urea that is suffering backlash. It passes through the Strait of Hormuz almost a third of global sulphuran essential element for the production of phosphate fertilizers such as DAP and MAP.
World stocks were already low before the war and now prices are rising further, exposing countries such as Morocco, a large producer of phosphates, to major repercussions.
The situation is aggravated by European duties on Russian and Belarusian fertilizers (among the largest producers in the world), introduced from July 2025 and destined to rise to 315-430 euros per tonne by 2028.
The consequences
The impact is being felt throughout the supply chain. Starting from Eurostat estimates, the Confagricoltura Study Center assumes increases of 30-40% on energy and fertilizer costswith an increase in production costs of up to approximately 2 billion euros.
For Italian producers of spring-sown cereals this means having to decide whether to postpone, reduce doses or change cultivation planwith the risk of compromising yields and quality.
For European consumers, the projection is cascading inflation: the increase in management costs along the entire agri-food chain will inevitably translate into increased prices for consumers.
