Restoration, revolution or global compromise? After Francesco, the cardinals face a crucial choice: redefine the face of the Church between ideological clashes, internal crises and a new geopolitical map of Vatican power.
“The next Pope? We hope it is Catholic ». The monk disappears in his black and white habit agitated by the wind. A turbine was Jorge Mario Bergoglio: he squandered the church. After him there are three roads: the restoration, the definitive worldwide or the resurrection based on the recovery of tradition to build an open church yes, but first of all the guide of the changing world. There are at least three inheritance of Francesco that the cardinal voters will have to or accept or refuse.
The first is the apostolic exhortation Amoris Laetitia who in the opinion of the conservative world has crushed the Church on a relativistic conception Of the faith, delivering it to historicism (on this the late Cardinal of Bologna Carlo Cafarra together with Raymond Burke, Walter Brandmüller and Joachim Meisner formulated the famous “Dubia” who remained unanswered by Francesco).
The second is the declaration of Abu Dhabi that the Pope signed in February 2019 with the great Imam al-Azhar Ahmad al-Tayyibin which it is said: “Pluralism and the diversity of religions wanted to God in his wisdom, through which he created human beings” which in fact places Catholicism – here is the joke of the monk – at the level of the other doctrines and therefore there is no longer a Christ Salvatore son of the only God.
And the third uncomfortable legacy is the continuous revolution that Bergoglio has led In the Curia to the point of depriving the Secretary of State of his embassies, to the point of risking the first strike in two thousand years of the Vatican employees. Francesco beyond the walls Leonine was a truly absolute monarch.
One thing is clear: The Pope who spoke of peace precisely because he looked at the last, did not interpret or appease the powerful and therefore did not know how to stop any conflict. We had the feeling that the Church in the chasing of the South of the world has lost its “geopolitical” proposal and interdiction capacity. The agreements with China and the simultaneous accusations of genocide in Israel – the relations with the Jews are at the lowest point ever known – the distance from the United States and in particular by Donald Trump and the extreme indulgence towards African regimes or of the South of the world, excluding the Argentine of Javier Milei, that country that dedicated seven days of mourning, that of his land where he did not want to return and they do not know The Vatican from the West.
As for Europe Bergoglio considered it land lost: Struggled by a synodality ranging from the Germany of Cardinal Reinhard Marx committed to promoting gay couples, women priest, communion to divorced, to France where instead the return to orthodoxy was invoked, up to Italy where the president of the Episcopal Conference The Cardinal of Bologna Matteo Maria Zuppi has been rejected the final document because it is too little assertive on LGBTQ people.
Zuppi is given among the papabili, but this accident probably puts it out of play because weak and too “modernist”. Marx tends to be the “king maker” of the Conclave, but will have to deal with Cardinal Gerhard Müller who brings the legacy of Benedict XVI to the Sistine Chapel and has a very solid topic to stop his contradictory: the money. Germany is in fact the strongest European taxpayer at the Vatican who has finances in poor condition despite the thousand maneuvers of Bergoglio.
In a week, maximum two 135 voters meet in a week, with an anomaly never verified in history: There is one more, but interdict ab eternal from public offices. It is Giovanni Angelo Becciu: sentenced at first instance to five years for embezzlement without having taken a euro, perhaps on the basis of artifact tests, remained cardinal only in the name. The story is the well -known one of the purchase of the London Palace in Sloane Avenue. If they wanted the cardinals – but the matter is legally complex – they could return the vote, but it means making it a possible candidate even if completely unlikely.
The Becciu affair could weigh on the Secretary of State Parolin who is one of the eligible for the Soglio di Pietro. In his case the old saying of the Conclave, Pope enters the cardinal, must be taken with many precautions. However, Parolin is one of the few that almost all cardinals know: he attended many of the dioceses of the world.
The voters are never seen in numbers: there would be a limit of 120 porpores that Francesco in life has ignored. His hope was, gradually taking the limit of 80 years for the cardinals appointed by John Paul II (there are five remained) and then by Ratzinger, to have a college of voters entirely in his image, so in recent years he has multiplied the concistlers and appointments.
But “his” 108 voters have almost never met. The new Pope will have to collect two thirds of the consents: 91 votes. Predicting a long conclave is not a heresy. The Holy Spirit will have a lot to do. It will really be necessary that the new man of Providence emerges since Bergoglio has left without representation diocese with millions of faithful.
The composition of the college is World Cup: 51 European Championships, 18 Africans, 17 of South America, four of Central America, 16 of North America, four of Oceania and 23 of Asia, including the Cardinal Hero Joseph Zen Ze-Kiun who is more than 90 years old, and therefore does not vote, has suffered the jail in China and has always contested the opening to the communist regime of Beijing. Zen made his voice heard very high: «They convened the first general congregations in the aftermath of the Pope’s death. It means preventing the older ones and the most distant participation in comparison. What is the point of glorifying the suburbs and then preventing their participation? ».
What is about to open is a conclave that is anything but peaceful. There are visions of the world and very different faith. And putting them in harmony will be complicated. Also for a physical question. For the first time the Cardinals College will not stay together. In Santa Marta – where Bergoglio resided – there are a maximum of 128 rooms. In the Vatican they do not know how to maintain the “segregation” of the united group. And it is known that there are communities ready to be heard. Certainly the North American Church – is the greatest contributor to Vatican finances – will want to influence from the outside. Blase Cupich arrives from Chicago which is an antitrumpian totally crushed on the pro migrant policies of the late Bergoglio. It is not eligible, but aggregates Zuppi and Cardinal Filipino Luis Antonio Tagle around him. The latter can aspire: he has excellent relations with China and Southeast Asia, he is the man of Curia-he leads the dicastery for evangelization-he has always insisted on interreligious dialogue.
The strong American is instead Timothy Dolan, Archbishop of New York. He has 70 percent of the American Church behind him, is the religious contact person of the vice -president JD Vance, is the purple that excluded from the communion Joe Biden because it is in favor of abortion. If the concerns for Vatican finances win and you want to give a new western profile to the Church could be the man of the compromise, perhaps working in pairs with Raymond Burke. The 76 -year -old “canonist lawyer” is a defender of Vetus Ordo, inspires a great American with respect to the passage.
As mentioned, true papabile is Parolin, secretary of state that Bergoglio had lately put aside, has been the man of the opening with China, but it is also the one who can return in a convulsive phase of the world geopolitics centrality to the Vatican. He is 70 years old, the right age for the throne, he is Italian – and, let’s remember, since 1978 Italy has no longer has a pontiff – he has excellent relations with the chancelleries of the world and is welcome by the Vatican structure.
The Orthodox party is led by African cardinals. We replied to Bergoglio: we will never give the blessing to gays. This patrol has a leader, a strong man of both faith and career: Robert Sarah. Guineian, is the prefect of the Congregation for Divine Cult: it could be the first black Pope. He is almost 80 years old, but boasts excellent relations with the French Church, with the Curia and Africa is considered almost a saint. Also from Africa, Fridolin Ambongo Besungu, cardinal of Kinshasa, a democratic republic of the Congo, with a very strong spiritual experience, may appear. He is 66 years old and could coagulate around him the churches of the South. Minor chances have Jean-Marc Aveline, who must be enrolled in the patrol of the Ultra-Bergogliani. He has a chair in Marseille: he is ecologist and favor of gays. Willem Jacobus Eijk, Archbishop of Utrecht, the Netherlands, who is against euthanasia is opposed. He could weave the canvas for the advantage of Sarah. The Spaniard Cristóbal López Romero, archbishop of Rabat, Morocco, stopped in dialogue with Islam is very popular.
Finally, there is the last Italian: Pierbattista Pizzaballa, Bergamo for years at the “front” of Jerusalem. The Hebrew speaks, but the Palestinians mild. He is a man of peace, but with a defect: he is “only” 60 years old. And as an emeritus cardinal said, indicating the magnificent Sistine chapel: “There they have to choose the Holy Father, not the eternal Father”.
