The collapse of the regime transforms Syria into a Turkish protectorate. The Sultan can now consolidate his relations with Jerusalem and transform the country into a raw materials hub with Europe. By implementing a ready-made development plan for the next 30 years.
It was Turkey that economically benefited from the war in Ukraine Recep Tayyip Erdogan. With one foot firmly in NATO, it has managed to become the center of energy triangulations, the political mediator with half of the East and obviously with the unmentionable country: Iran. With the expulsion of Bashar Al Assad and the arrival in Damascus of the jihadists (newly dressed) of Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (Hts) and led by Abu Mohammed Al JolaniTurkey makes a further leap in quality. Of power and control of an area likely to become increasingly larger.
First of all, Türkiye and Iran seem to be moving away separated by a new trench that was formed after the Israeli bombings. Even more so Erdogan is collecting all the dividends after investing its energies in Hts. The group interacted tactically primarily with Turkey, taking advantage of shared border regions to facilitate mutual agreements. Turkish military convoys frequently pass through HTS-controlled territories in Idlib, a practice permitted by tacit agreements that guarantee safe passage. In exchange, HTS benefits from transit fees, which intelligence sources say generates millions of dollars a year. The 2024 expansion of Turkey’s logistics operations into northern Syria has further tightened these interactions, with HTS beginning to use the revenues to finance infrastructure projects and consolidate its governance apparatus. By implementing an image cleansing project that aims to win the hearts of Europe and the approval of the chancelleries to be removed from the black list of terrorist groups. In this make up process Erdogan it certainly played an important role. “Turkey has defended Syria’s territorial integrity to the end and is now asking the international community to work for a transition that leads the country to peace and serenity,” he said yesterday Erdogan at the end of the Council of Ministers. “We have always denounced violence and now the only thing that matters is support for a peaceful transition, which makes dialogue prevail over hatred”, he concluded in a papal manner.
On the other hand, whatever form of government awaits Damascus, the telephone line with Ankara will be direct. Erdogan will take advantage of the new protectorate to consolidate relations with Israel again and to try to eliminate the resistance of the Kurds with a precise geographical objective. Turkey aims to become a country capable of projecting itself not only into the Mediterranean but also deep into the Caucasian highway leading to the former Soviet countries of Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan up to Azerbaijan. It is clear that we Europeans are used to thinking in the short term. And this level of strategy seems like political fiction to us. For Turkey the time criteria are different. On December 31, 2023, the National Assembly of Türkiye approved the Twelfth National Development Plan. There are 263 pages divided into two macro chapters. The first deals with forecasts up to 2028. The second up to 2053. It means that Erdogan he wrote a thousand programmatic points for a more powerful Türkiye. Now, given what he has done in the last ten years, one might think that the Turks are serious. They have already calculated how many employees there will have to be in the defense, sports and health sectors. Which technologies do they wish to develop and which infrastructures are best to focus on. One of the paragraphs is dedicated to raw materials. As early as 2026, Ankara will aim to become the hub for sensitive raw materials, from lithium to tungsten. The objective is to apply new traceability technologies, acquire mines abroad and then resell them to those who do not have the ability to source their own supplies. That is, Europe.
The document does not expressly mention the names of the nations where Ankara would like to invest in mines or make agreements. but it is clear that these are ex-Soviet countries and to achieve that objective, control of Syria is an essential step.
Just as it is essential for Turkey to find a military agreement with Russia. With the approval of Israel which in the meantime has started to control the Golan Heights as in 1973, Erdogan is mediating with Vladimir Putin. The Russians’ goal is to keep a foot in the Mediterranean. In short, the Tartus base must also be defended by the Turks in order to allow the Russian fleet to move in and out of the Black Sea. However, one cannot fail to notice the downsizing of Moscow which in turn is preparing to negotiate with the US Donald Trump to keep most of the conquered territories in Ukraine. When it comes to cause and effect, the Middle East is truly a case of literature. A weight is lifted and leverage is taken immediately. Turkey has demonstrated that it can move the levers very well and that it is ready to become an empire.
On a positive note, with the Meloni government the dialogue with Ankara has resumed and this dangerous change of scenario seems destined to intensify it.
