A dull, constant noise above our heads makes us roll our eyes. Long white trails stand out in the clear blue. Equal to those of American missiles directed towardsIranbut the direction is the opposite. The high-flying dots are missiles launched by Pasdaran towards targets in the Gulf or in Israel. The winding and deserted road threads through barren mountains dominated by higher, snow-capped peaks towards the border withIranthe most dangerous in the world.
The first border tower of the Islamic Republic appears on a hilltop. The area is touristy, usually full of people. Now the villages are deserted with restaurants and souvenir shops closed out of fear. The Iranians bombed cell phone antennas to seal off the area. And infiltrated spies. After passing the sign indicating the border crossing of Shushmei a Peshmergaa Kurdish fighter which means “ready to die”, guarding a casemate, rolls his eyes, but lets us carry on.
Trails of missiles and drones: Iraqi Kurdistan under fire from the Pasdaran
After yet another hairpin bend an iron gate bolts the border point in the north ofIraq where there is not a soul. The flag of Islamic Republicflying from a tall flagpole, not far from one of the Iranian border guard turrets, makes an impression. A soldier comes out of the Iraqi customs offices waving his arms, shouting not to take photographs and to go back. Not even a shadow of the Iranians. The police commander of the last village before the border, who intercepts us on the way back, puts his hands in his hair: «Journalists? What are you doing here? You are like “honey” for people Pasdaran nestled everywhere. They could kidnap you under the accusation of being spies for the Mossad».
The Kurdistansuper autonomous region in the North ofIraqborders for 528 kilometers withIran. A Kurdish outpost in the midst of a devastating war, which could become a springboard for entering by land. Fifteen thousand Iranian Kurds live in camps with square houses and low roofs managed by armed political groups opposing the ayatollahs. At least 5 thousand are ready to fight across the border, raising the Kurdish population in Iran. The camps of armed opponents are half of the targets, in the first ten days of the war, of the 220 attacks with missiles and drones from Islamic Republic or launched by Iraqi Shiite militiamen, janissaries of Tehran. The rest was concentrated on the American base at the international airport Erbil alongside 180 Italian soldiers from the mission First Parthicatraining of Peshmergalocked in bunkers. Or at the consulate USA or on that of United Arab Emirates hit on March 9 by a kamikaze drone.
Trump and the Iranian dilemma: the risk of a new Vietnam
After the first week of the war, the American president Donald Trump has begun to sense the risk of becoming entangled in a long conflict with energy and economic boomerangs. And look at the polls: 53 percent of Americans are against the pre-emptive strike. «Trump it got bogged down from day one, dragged by the jacket by the Israelis” he claims Marco Bertoliniretired general of the paratroopers. «The narrative that they destroyed the Navy, the barracks of the Pasdaran and so on it serves to prepare a way out.”
You can’t win a war againstIran only with missiles and bombers. The elimination of the supreme leader perpetuated the K factor, da Khomeini in 1979 ad Ali Khameneito his son Mojtabaa walking target (appears to have already been wounded). “Regime change took place, but in the opposite direction compared to Trump’s wishes,” he points out Nicola Peddedirector ofInstitute for Global Studies. «Even if he is a religious man, the new leader marks the end of the theocracy and legitimizes the power of the second generation of gods Pasdaranwhich will lead the country towards military authoritarianism.”
The Energy Siege: The Battle for Kharg and the Straits of Hormuz
The Revolutionary Guards, state within state, continue to launch missiles (50-60 per day), despite the decimation of the generals. «After ten days of war, the Iranian chain of command and control is holding up and not giving up on attacks», explains a military source from Panoramawhich follows the operations. “There are no signs of ground actions.” Anti-Ayatollah Iranians don’t take to the streets with their bare hands to be massacred by Basijthe volunteers of the revolution. And at this point Trump has few alternatives: a land invasion is ruled out and could turn into a new one Vietnamas well as infuriating the people Sorceress which already does not look favorably on the pre-emptive attack on Islamic Republic. «To invade theIran it would take hundreds of thousands of soldiers, if you consider that, to liberate the Kuwait in 1991, the allies fielded more than 600,000″, he points out Pietro Batacchidirector of Italian defense magazine.
There White House considered limited high-risk operations. The most daring, but also imaginative, is the use of hundreds of men from the American and Israeli special forces to seize the 400 kilos of uranium, enriched to 60 percent, useful for the atomic bomb, which are apparently still preserved in the underground tunnels at the site of Isfahan. Trump he mentioned the «control of Hormuz», a vital energy hub for the passage of oil tankers. A closed gut of Pasdaranwhich with a powerful air-naval operation could be successful, but would also mean landing on the Iranian coast close to the strait and maintaining control of it. THE’Europe is planning to send an escort fleet to the tankers, with possible Italian participation.
Girls in arms against Tehran: the resistance of the Peshmerga
Another plan points to the island of Kharg25 kilometers fromIrana strategic hub for crude oil exports Islamic Republic now discontinued. In peacetime they were extracting seven million barrels a day, 90 percent going to China. Fighters could easily destroy oil terminals, but perhaps it is no coincidence that the82nd Airborne Division canceled some exercises to remain ready at the base Fort BraggNorth Carolina. Five thousand men are able to move in a few hours and conquer Kharg controlling the main Iranian income, but the losses risk being huge and the contingent would remain under fire.
«The Iranians point to the fact that Trump declare victory and leave the Israelis holding the bag” he is convinced Bertolini. “Everyone will say they won and it will end like this, but nothing will change.” In Kurdistanthe front closest toIranthere are those who would like to seize the moment. The six Iranian Kurdish armed parties in exile in the north ofIraq they have joined forces and are asking for weapons and American air support to advance across the border. Trump telephoned the leaders of the Kurdistan and also to Mustafa Hijrihead of PdkIthe longest-running movement in the fight against Pasdaran.
There Türkiyewhich sees the ethnic group as smoke and mirrors, has stood in the way despite the approaches of the Hi and of Mossad. Not only that: the special forces have already entered the Kurdish areas ofIran and they “illuminate” the targets for the fighters with the help of local clandestine cells. This is why the Iranians are hammering the bases of Peshmerga in the’Iraq northern, as a field Azadiwhich means freedom, a Koya. Even the women, even very young, are in the front row. Sonia almost of age, he wears the traditional sand-colored puffed uniform of the Peshmerga. And in his jacket he keeps as a good luck charm, next to the pistol and the Kalashnikov magazine pouches, a plush mouse with a red heart «given by a fighter. So it is always with me.”
The young girl in arms escaped fromIran Kurdish after the large protests in January which were bloodily repressed. “They killed and silenced our people who were asking for their rights,” he says. “Families had to pay to get back the bodies of their loved ones killed in the processions.” Baba Sheikh Hosseinleader of the movement Khabator “fight”, he deludes himself: «Our objective is to liberate the Kurdish cities, but if necessary, to defeat the regime, we will go as far as Tehran». All the armed groups claim to have already infiltrated cells ready to act at X time. On the way back from Koya a sudden column of black smoke rises from a base of the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran. The suicide drone has just struck, wreaking havoc inside, where a fire broke out on a carpet of shrapnel.
THE Peshmerga of the regional government come out with armored vehicles and weapons in hand from a nearby barracks to face other possible attacks. In the midst of the chaos comes the news that the camp Azadileft an hour earlier, was also bombed with two missiles and three drones. The videos of Peshmerga they show a barrier of rifle fire, mixing with the deadly drone of the diving drone up to the fireball of the explosion on impact. To Erbil the Christian neighborhood of Ankawa500 meters from the airport, a priority objective. «The community is afraid and many want to emigrate. Three missiles hit chapels and monasteries” he denounces Ano Jawhar Abdokaof theChristian Alliance and regional minister. “It was intentional and it is not just a crime, but an act of terror.”
The military source of Panorama he predicts that «at a certain point the Americans will declare that they have won by reeling off the numbers of the targets hit and will end the air campaign». Even the regime of Pasdaran he will sing victory. Peddea great expert in the area, has no doubts: “If they survive they will make nuclear weapons a strategic priority.”
