Donald Trump will be the 47th president of the United States. According to Fox News, the Republican candidate is projected to win in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin: states that would guarantee the tycoon the keys to the Oval Office. The trends of the last few days which gave the former president the lead in practically all areas were therefore confirmed swing states. Among other things, at the moment, the Republican candidate is also ahead in the counting Nevada And Michigan. The New York Times, even without making it official yet, it gives the former president more than 95% chance of victory. All ready from the headquarters in Florida for the victory speech of Donald Trump.
This result would confirm the structural limits of the campaign Kamala Harris. First of all, the Dem candidate made a mistake in choosing Tim Walz as deputy. They said he should have helped her win over the working class vote in the Rust Belt and instead, in addition to failing to do so, he also burdened her with various gaffes. A second problem was that the Harris she found herself suddenly catapulted into presidential candidacy, without popular investiture and, above all, just three months before the vote. It was clear that his race was therefore fundamentally uphill. A third aspect to consider is that the Harris she is the deputy of an American president, Joe Bidensignificantly unpopular. It therefore seems that the “Hubert Humphrey effect” was triggered: the 1968 Democratic candidate who, while serving as vice president, was crippled by the unpopularity of his boss, Lyndon Johnson. Finally, it is clear that it has a negative impact on the Harris it was the fact of having lost pieces of the historically democratic electorate. We will have to wait for the electoral data, of course. But the polls had revealed serious difficulties for the vice president among workers, African-Americans, Hispanics, Catholics and Arab-Americans. Finally, it remains to be demonstrated that the Dem establishment, beyond the façade of unity, has not secretly rowed against the Harris.
But be careful: if the results were confirmed, Trump she didn’t win just because of her opponent’s demerits. The former president launched an effective campaign, mobilizing strategic sectors of the electorate in key states: from Catholics to minorities, especially blue-collar workers. The choice of JD Vance it was born precisely from the need to intercept the working class vote in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. If the results were confirmed, this would mean that the bet (not without risk) of Trump it turned out to be successful. Last but not least: watch out for the Butler attack. Many tried to make you believe that this was a minor event. But things aren’t like that. That day, getting up immediately after being hit and risking being shot by a possible second sniper, Trump he gave an undisputed display of leadership. And leadership was one of the key issues of this election campaign. Trumpin Butler, looked death in the face. There Harrisfor the entire first month of the campaign, instead systematically avoided giving interviews. In short, an antithetical behavior, which in the end seems to have made a decisive difference.
