What will be the role of Ankara in the resolution of the Ukrainian crisis? On Friday, on the sidelines of the Monaco conference on security, the American secretary of state, Marco Rubiohad a meeting with the Turkish Foreign Minister, Hakan Fidan. From what has been learned, the two spoke of the ceasefire in Gaza, the situation in Syria and the conflict between Ukraine and Russia.
On the other hand, it is not a mystery that the two dossiers – the Ukrainian and the Middle Eastern one – are connected. Turkey, in 2022, was the main mediator of the grain agreement between Kiev and Moscow. Secondly, the fall of Bashar al Assad In Syria it took place last year, fundamentally with a push by Ankara, who brought the insurgents led by Mohammed at Jolani. These are two elements that, apparently disconnected, could actually prove to be intertwined.
First of all, last week, the head of the Pentagon, Pete Hegsethexcluded the sending of US troops to the Ukrainian territory to guarantee the hold of a possible peace agreement between Kiev and Moscow. Hegseth He specified that this task must be carried out by “European and non -European troops”. This is a reference not only to Canada but also likely to Türkiye herself, which, let’s remember, is part of NATO. On the other hand, in recent weeks, rumors circulated on the possibility that Turkish military forces were used to guarantee peace in Ukrainian territory. It cannot therefore be excluded that the Trump administration is dealing with Recep Tayyip Erdogan On this point.
Secondly, you have to be cautious. Trump The special correspondent for the Middle East has also placed American negotiators for the Ukrainian crisis, Steve Witkoff. Sign of the fact that the American president considers the two intertwined dossiers. Now, it is not a mystery that the United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia do not see the increase in Turkish power followed too much about the rise of Jolani. Furthermore, it is likely that Trump He can try to help Moscow recover some influence on the Middle East in exchange for some concession on the Ukrainian question. It is on this point that, at least theoretically, divergences between Washington and Ankara could register. This will not be said to happen. But it cannot be completely excluded. Among other things, in 2020, Erdogan It was not among the proponents of the Abraham agreements: those agreements that, on the contrary, Trump He intends to relaunch also to try to resolve the situation in Gaza.
The team of the American president will therefore have to be able to find a not simple square. On the one hand, it will have to involve Turkey in the Ukrainian diplomatic process, without having them acquired excessive weight. On the other, he will have to process a strategy to contain the remarkable increase in Ankara’s influence on the Middle Eastern chessboard following the Syrian crisis. The goal is not easy to achieve. But not even impossible.
