Having entered the third year of the conflict, Ukrainians show growing skepticism towards the possibility of rapid entry into NATO and the European Uniontwo objectives considered fundamental for the security and prosperity of the country. This is highlighted by an analysis by the polling institute Gallupwhich finds that, although the majority of the population continues to expect accession within the next decade, enthusiasm for a quick solution is waning. Before the re-election of the former president Donald Trumpwhich took place last November 5, doubts about Ukraine’s future with the West were already evident. The data of Gallup show a progressive weakening of hopes for rapid entry into the Atlantic Alliance and the EU. Added to this is a decline in approval of the US leadership, considered Kiev’s main military ally.
As of August 2024, only 51% of Ukrainians surveyed believed the country would join NATO within the next ten years, a significant drop from more than 60% recorded in the early years of the conflict. Meanwhile, the percentage of those who believe that Ukraine will never be accepted has risen to 22%, double compared to previous years.
Parallel paths for the EU and NATO
Expectations regarding EU membership follow a similar trend. In 2022 and 2023, 73% of Ukrainians were convinced that joining the Union would happen within ten years. However, in 2024 this percentage has fallen to 61%, with an increase to 15% of those who believe that Ukraine will never join the EU bloc.
Even the start of formal talks for EU membership, which began in June 2024, does not seem to have given new impetus to hopes. An even more complex path concerns entry into NATO. In October, former Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg hypothesized the possibility of welcoming Ukraine into the Alliance even with territories occupied by Russia. However, internal resistance within the EU represents a significant obstacle: the Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico he reiterated his veto on Kiev’s entry into NATO, while supporting EU membership.
Falling approval for American leadership
Ukrainians’ trust in US leadership has suffered a drastic decline. Between 2014 and 2021, approval fluctuated between 20% and 40%. With the start of the war in 2022 and the increase in military aid from the US, the approval rating jumped to 66%, one of the highest levels in the world at the time. However, in 2024, political polarization in the United States has called support for Kiev into question. Many Republicans oppose continued military aid, and the US leadership’s approval has fallen to 40%, back to pre-conflict levels. At the same time, 37% of Ukrainians now disapprove of the US leadership, signaling the loss of support gained during the early stages of the war.
Germany viewed more favorably than the United States
A different picture emerges for Germany. Although at the beginning of the war Berlin’s hesitations, linked to energy dependence on Russia, caused disapproval to rise to 35%, the approval rate remained stable. In 2023, approval for the German leadership stood at 53%, on par with the United States. However, while consensus for Washington declined in 2024, trust in Berlin remained stable, marking Germany’s advantage over the US for the first time since the beginning of the conflict.
Skepticism and war weariness
As the conflict enters its third year, Ukrainian fatigue is growing. Hopes for rapid membership of NATO and the EU are fading, and the determination to fight until victory also seems to be diminishing. Tensions with Western allies are intensifying, while the initial support from the United States now appears to have faded. The next few months, with the installation of the new American administration, will be decisive in determining the course of the war and the future of Ukraine on its path towards Western alliances.
