Consuming Putin’s weapons in Ukraine to reduce the Russian danger in Europe, this is the fierce strategy that lengthens the conflict while the armies of the old continent are redone.
Unless a sudden event that changes those who govern Russia or Ukraine, it is useless to delude themselves, Europe does not have a capacity to significantly and quickly reduce the level of threat to the old continent, but today to continue the war between Russia and Ukraine is part of the strategy to succeed. However, the various EU states are still unable to coordinate their efforts, leaving Putin in the situation of being able to organize themselves and to remedy the limitations imposed by the sanctions. The moment Washington had declared that he wanted to disengage – only to overturn things by diverting the batteries of missiles intended for Switzerland to Kiev – European leaders immediately ran to reaffirm their commitment to support Zelensky (leader of a government without any opposition) and highlight the danger to European security, although they are aware that without an American support they can do little.
Result: European policy merely attempts to delay Ukrainian defeat as much as possible by keeping the Kremlin engaged. Without even hiding it, the European idea is, in fact, that of continuing to consume Russian resources in Ukraine at least for another year, in order to make their reconstitution impossible in time to threaten the rest of Europe in the near future. With the idea, never abandoned, that the territory of Kiev continues to be in fact that “bearing” area between NATO and Russia. And all of the losses, the Moscow army will take at least five years to reconstitute the generations of officers that has lost and which has lost in battle since February 2022. A period of time that allows EU countries to complete the trial of rearmament in progress and also exploit its effects on the economy and industry. The question that we ask is therefore what is and what will be the actual situation of the Russian stocks of weapons and armored vehicles today and between twelve months, such as the state of the recruitment that seems to its historical maximum with the classification of almost 45,000 units per month, a rhythm impossible to maintain for a long time and permitted with the help of private militias (contractors) referred to by the African but expensive operations on the financial level. Also because the Kremlin has recently declared that military spending will not increase and that the main source of financing is the money from the energy sector, or from the sale of oil and gas. And with the penalties that limit the ability of Russia to debt on the international market, the country cannot afford to manage a budget deficit still growing. It must be remembered that most of the Russian oil exports take place by sea and over 60% of this traffic passes into the Baltic Sea in Danish waters.
Denmark, although it has never done it to maintain relationships as far as possible with Moscow, could in the future prohibit this transit and there is no shortage of pressure, especially Polish, British and US, in this sense. Meanwhile, the ability of the Ukrainian forces to affect increasingly deep in Russian territory also thanks to European weapons makes the EU military industry more credible and advanced, strengthening it in deterrence but also in exports. The consequence is a situation in which it is better to maintain the current position by gaining time, which is possible only if Ukraine manages to resist, while France, Germany, the Netherlands, Italy and other nations reconstitute the conventional forces that for twenty years had reduced only to arrange the essential defense structures for the control operations of the airspace and for the missions abroad, where, however, only asymmetrical conflicts have always been faced.
