The plane of Steve Witkoffspecial envoy of the President of the United States Donald Trump, landed this morning at the Vnukovo-2 airport in Moscow. In the evening, Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet him as announced by the Cremlin Councilor, Yury Ushakov. “The meeting between Witkoff and President Putin will be held around closed doors tonight,” he confirmed Ushakov to the Interfax agency. Previously, the spokesman for the Kremlin, Dmitri Peskovhe had underlined that Russia will begin to formulate its position on the truce proposal only after receiving information on the recent interviews between the United States and Ukraine. “The process of receiving this information is currently in progress,” said Peskov. The Russian presidential councilor, Yuri Ushakovsaid that a 30 -day fire proposal, discussed during a meeting between the United States and Ukrainian in Saudi Arabia, will have to be finalized taking into account Moscow’s interests: «The document, it seems to me, is hurry up. We will have to work, reflect and also take into account our position. There only the Ukrainian approach is exposed, “Ushakov said to journalists, commenting on the proposal to cease the fire in Ukraine. Ushakov has previously underlined that the proposal of a ceased for 30 days in the Ukrainian conflict gives nothing to Russia and represents only an opportunity for Ukraine to reorganize his strengths.” Vladimir Putin? The Russian president first thanked Donald Trump who still made it possible to accept the proposal of the respite that if Russia will not accept the proposal for kilometers because they need 30 days, for the mobilization or supply of weapons to Ukraine? ”
But what are “the devastating sanctions against Russia” of which Trump speaks? We ask the American analyst Irina Tsukerman: «The term contains a broad and multifaceted set of economic, diplomatic and financial tools aimed at forcing Moscow to respect the American plan, whatever form it can take. These sanctions, if they were to be implemented, would try to hit the Kremlin where it hurts more: its ability to work as a global power. Exclusion from the global financial system: one of the most powerful tools that United States They could use is to exclude Russia from the international financial system, in particular through measures such as the removal of Russian banks from the Swift network. This would make Russia extremely difficult to conduct business abroad, access its reserves or engage in international trade. The result would be an immediate destabilization of the Russian economy, which would lead to the escape of capital, to inflation and potentially to a race at the Rublo “. What about energy and export sanctions? «These sanctions could be targeted to the main exports of Russia: oil, gas and mining resources. By targeting Russian energy companies, the United States could block new contracts or even limit Russia’s ability to transport energy through oil pipelines and maritime routes. These measures would damage the Russian economy, which depends on exports, would trigger a surge in global energy prices and would cause a wave of shock in energy markets “. Then there are the penalties aimed at the Russian elite that Trump has already used to hit the narrow circle of the Kremlin, made up of oligarchs, politicians and loyal tycoons in Putin. «Yes, the US can freeze their assets, prohibit them international travel and stop their access to global markets would alienate them and sow discord between the Russian elite. This could further isolate Putin, limiting his ability to maintain the loyalty of his closer allies and destabilizing his grip on power ».
There is also talk of secondary sanctions, what are they? «Trump’s penalties will probably not stop at Russia alone. Secondary sanctions would punish any country or company that entertains commercial relations with Russia. This could have a chain effect, pushing other nations or companies to choose from Russian profits and access to the vast American market. For example, European companies that depend on Russian energy may have to face punitive measures, forcing them to evaluate whether to continue relying on the exports of Russian energy ».
The immediate economic consequences would be extremely serious. Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP) will suffer a drastic decline, while the reduction and devaluation of the ruble would significantly reduce the purchasing power of citizens. The Russian government would encounter serious difficulties in financing its activities, while the escape of foreign investments would compromise industrial modernization processes. Internationally, the tightening of sanctions would accentuate the isolation of Russia, favoring a strengthening of bonds with China and other authoritarian regimes, although at the price of growing economic dependence. Although this alliance may be advantageous for Beijing, the financial repercussions for Moscow would still be significant. Finally, an economic collapse could feed internal tension, favoring the onset of protests, social disorders or even a political crisis such as to question the stability of Russia and Putin’s power.
What will Putin say to Steve Witkoff tonight? Second Irina Tsukerman : «As for what President Putin could tell Steve Witkoff, the conversation will undoubtedly be imbued with geopolitical calculations, both cautious and strong. Witkoff, a well -inserted figure in American economic circles, could be used as a sounding board or as a link for the message of the Kremlin to the US hexablishment. In the typical Putin style, we can expect a mixture of hard challenge, strategic calculation and attempts to create a gap between American politicians and international commercial interests. Putin will almost certainly present potential penalties as a western attempt to interfere in the internal affairs of Russia, using terms such as “aggression not caused” and “economic war”. It will probably highlight Russia’s sovereignty, underlining that Moscow has the right to determine its path and refuse external requests. It can be expected to strengthen its rhetoric with the usual themes of the strength and resilience of Russia, perhaps defining the threat of sanctions as a compliment veiled to the growing global influence of Russia “.
What can we expect?
«At the same time, Putin will probably recognize the reality of the pressure exerted by the West: after all, it is not foreign to the economic challenges and knows that this is a war of attrition. There will probably be a veiled invitation to dialogue, since Putin knows very well that although strength shows, the Russian economy is vulnerable. In its typical form, Putin could offer an olive branch in the form of conditioned negotiations, inviting the United States to explore “mutual interests”, but firmly refusing any attempt to force Russia to capitulate to the American plan without the full respect of the Russian priorities. In the definitive, Putin will try to create an image of Russia as a resolute actor on the global scene, which will not give in the external pressure, openings for indirect diplomacy. The conversation will probably conclude with a phrase that transmits both firmness and a subtle invitation to a further commitment, such as: “Russia is ready to discuss these issues, but only on conditions that respect our sovereignty and our interests”
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