The consequences of international conflicts never remain far from everyday life. And when it comes to energy, the transition from geopolitics to Italians’ wallets can be surprisingly rapid. The crisis in the Middle East, in fact, has already begun to produce concrete effects on fuel prices in our country, with increases that in just a few days have brought the issue of high petrol prices back to the center of attention.
According to an analysis carried out by Altroconsumobetween February 25th and March 5th Petrol and diesel prices have increased significantly in major Italian cities. In some cases the increases are close to +6%with diesel recording the most marked increases. A signal which, if international tension were to continue, could only represent the beginning of a new phase of energy price increases.
Diesel more affected than petrol
The analysis takes into consideration the average self-service fuel prices in the urban networks of Milan, Rome, Naples and Turinusing the findings of Quotidiano Energia. The picture that emerges shows a general increase, but with different dynamics between petrol and diesel.
For petrol the increases fluctuate between 3 and 4%. Milan recorded the highest increase with +4.1%, followed by Rome with +3.9%, Naples with +3.3% and Turin with +3.1%.
Diesel, on the other hand, is growing more markedly. In Rome you arrive at +5.9%while Milan marks +5.5%, Naples +5.2% and Turin +4.9%. A particularly significant figure if we consider the central role of diesel in transport and logistics, two sectors that directly impact the final cost of goods.
The risk of inflation is back on the table
The increase in fuel prices doesn’t just affect those who fill up. Energy represents one of the main variables that influence the overall cost of the economy. When the price of oil and gas increases, the effect tends to ripple rapidly throughout the production chain.
The price of crude oil has already exceeded the threshold several times in recent weeks 100 dollars a barrelwhile the cost of gas increased by 75% within a month. If the crisis continues, the consequences could extend to energy bills and the prices of numerous consumer goods.
The reason is simple: a large part of industrial production requires energy and the majority of goods in Italy are transported by road. Fuel, therefore, affects both production and logistics costs. When diesel increases, the effect inevitably transfers to the shelves as well.
How much does it cost to fill up today?
At the moment the national average price of petrol is equal to 1,729 euros per litrewhile diesel stands at 1,823 euros per litreaccording to Quotidiano Energia data updated to March 5. These are average values which however hide territorial differences and higher individual cases.
In fact, in some service stations, prices reach up to 2.29 euros per liter for petrol and 2.39 euros for dieseleven if these are isolated situations. Overall, the analysis highlights a relative uniformity between the different provinces and between the distributors present in the same territory, a sign that at least for now no large systematic deviations emerge.
Among the provinces with the highest prices for gasoline stands out Crotonewith an average of 1.791 euros per litre, followed by Palermo and Nuoro. The cheapest ones are instead Teramo, Asti and Cagliari. For diesel, the most expensive province is still Crotone, followed by Bolzano and Triestewhile the lowest prices are recorded at Catania, Teramo and Syracuse.
The fear of speculation
In a phase of tension on the energy markets, the issue of possible speculation inevitably returns. The Guarantor for price surveillance has already convened the Rapid Alert Commission precisely to monitor any anomalies in fuel price lists.
According to Altroconsumo, the current data show a certain consistency between the prices of the different distributors, but the risk of isolated episodes still remains present, especially if the international crisis were to continue.
The proposal: intervene on VAT
To prevent the increase in energy prices from turning into a new inflationary spiral, the consumer association is calling for immediate action. Among the proposed measures is: the reduction or elimination of VAT on fuela component that significantly weighs on the final price.
The cost of petrol, in fact, is made up of the industrial price to which excise duties and VAT at 22% are added. Temporarily reducing value added tax would help mitigate the impact of price increases on consumers.
According to Altroconsumo, it would also be a sustainable measure from a fiscal point of view. When the price of energy increases, VAT revenue also automatically increases because the tax is calculated as a percentage of the final price. Intervening on this component would therefore only mean giving up the extra income generated by the price increase.
A crisis that affects all of Europe
The energy issue does not only concern Italy. The closure of Strait of Hormuzone of the main global routes for the transport of oil and gas, has reduced the transit of ships carrying LNG and contributed to increasing uncertainty in international markets.
For this reason the crisis has already entered the European political agenda. A was summoned Extraordinary G7 of Energy Ministersin which the Italian Minister for the Environment and Energy Security Gilberto Pichetto Fratin also participates.
In the short term, the gas reserves available in Europe could help stabilize the system. In the long term, however, the crisis in the Middle East reminds us once again how exposed the European economy remains to geopolitical shocks and how strategic it is to strengthen the continent’s energy autonomy.
