Waiting for theElection Dayeveryone is understandably wondering about the electoral fate of the seven key states: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. As of October 30, the polling average of Real Clear Politics gave Donald Trump slightly ahead in all of these states, except Michigan, where Kamala Harris it was ahead by 0.5%. Yet be careful. If it is true that, very probably, the upcoming presidential elections will be decided by these seven states, it is equally true that there are others where there could be surprises. In particular, it is perhaps best to pay attention first of all to Virginia and Minnesota.
Both of these states were conquered by Joe Biden in 2020: Virginia with a 10.1% lead, Minnesota with a 7% lead. Well, in these areas the Harriswhile remaining in the lead, is showing signs of difficulty. According to the average of Real Clear Politicsthe Democratic candidate is ahead in Virginia by 5.8%, while her advantage in Minnesota is just 4.7%.
These are much lower numbers than those recorded by Biden four years ago. And perhaps the most significant aspect lies in the fact that, in addition to voting uninterruptedly for the Dems since 1976, Minnesota has a governor, Tim Walzwhich the Harrislast August, he chose as his deputy. It is therefore impressive that the Democratic candidate has such a narrow virtual advantage in this state.
But the potentially “surprise” states don’t stop there. Another one to keep an eye on is New Hampshire. Here, the average of Real Clear Politics gives the Harris ahead by 6.3 points: Bidenin 2020, he conquered it with a 7.4% advantage. It’s true that there doesn’t seem to be a huge difference. However, one of the most recent on-site polls, that of WHDH-TV/Emerson dating back to October 21, gives the Harris ahead by just three points. And it’s not over. Trump is also advancing in New York, where, according to the average of FiveThirtyEight, the vice president has a 17% lead: six points less than Biden in 2020.
Let’s be clear: it remains rather difficult Trump may succeed in conquering even just one of these four states. Nonetheless, it is clear that, in all four, the polls are showing it to be much more competitive than in 2020. So, at the end of the day, some surprises cannot be ruled out at all. In particular, the state that is most within the tycoon’s reach appears to be Virginia. An eventuality which, in case, would represent a serious blow for the Harriswhose attempts to make inroads into Florida and Texas do not seem to have been successful for now. Second FiveThirtyEightin both states the Republican candidate would currently have a greater advantage than he recorded in 2020.
