stopped maritime traffic, attacks on oil tankers and skyrocketing freight and insurance prices. The war blocks the artery through which a fifth of the world’s energy passes.
For six days now the waters of the Persian Gulf have become the most dangerous in the world. While browsing through it Strait of Hormuzgateway to Middle Eastern energy, fell 90% compared to last week, even an oil tanker docked at the Iraqi port of al-Zubair was attackedprobably by the Iranian Pasdaran.
Tight closed
The paralysis of the Persian Gulf is now certified. According to data from Lloyd’s List Intelligence, around 200 international oil tankers are effectively stuck in the turbulent waters off Iranafter the substantial blockade of transits through the Strait of Hormuz.
The ships are at anchor, moored at the terminals or proceeding at very low speed waiting to understand what will happen.
Congestion is felt more among large oil tankers, given that there are currently 60 VLCCs (Very Large Crude Carriers) found within the Gulf, of which 13 are moored at loading terminals, 33 at anchor and 14 in slow navigation.
Kpler data also confirms the collapse of flows, according to which Oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday fell by around 90% compared to the previous week.
Normally, around 20 million barrels of crude oil per day pass through this arm of the sea, a fifth of the world’s needs.
The costs
The economic consequences of the blockade are being felt immediately and violently on the raw materials and maritime freight markets.
The reference charter rate for VLCCs used to transport 2 million barrels of oil from the Middle East to China it jumped to $423,736 a daywith an increase of over 94% compared to the previous session.
But it is on the insurance front that the most striking increases are recorded: the premiums for covering war risk, which before the escalation fluctuated between 0.2% and 0.25% of the value of the cargo.
After the war began, some major marine insurance mutuals directly suspended coverage for ships transiting the Persian Gulf, making the economic risk simply unbearable for many shipowners.
THE Lloyd’s of London have instead raised premiums up to 1% of the insured value per transit, quadrupling it compared to pre-crisis levelswhile for supertankers this translates into an increase of hundreds of thousands of dollars per trip.
Selective closure?
While international commercial traffic is paralyzed, Tehran suggests that the blockade is not indiscriminate. Iran stated that the Strait remains accessible to countries “friendly” to the Islamic Republic.
The facts seem to confirm this policy of “selective closure”: Bloomberg reports that a bulk carrier reported being Chinese-owned while transiting the Strait of Hormuz, changing its destination signal to “CHINA OWNER” as it skirted Omani waters, according to tracking data from Bloomberg and Kpler.
Bloomberg also reported that China is putting heavy pressure on Iran behind the scenesusing its influence as Tehran’s main trading partner, to make the Strait of Hormuz safe for oil shipments to Chinese refineries.
The US promises aid
The social message of Donald Trumpin which he promised insurance coverage and military escorts, does not seem to have worked for the moment, however, the US Energy Secretary Chris Wright tried to reassure the markets.
Wright called the closure of the Strait of Hormuz a temporary event and said that the US Navy would soon escort the tankers through the waterway, but said that “our Navy and our military are focused on other things right now, which is disarming the Iranian regime.”
In the meantime, the large ship transport giants move independently. Maersk has temporarily suspended accepting bookings to and from the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia (Dammam and Jubail ports), with exceptions only for food, medicine and essential goods.
The move is similar COSCOwhich blocked bookings for the Gulf countries. All actors are preparing for a lasting crisis.
