According to CNN, the CIA is arming Kurdish forces to lead an uprising against the Iranian regime
Donald Trump’s objectives in Iran remain uncertain for the moment. On Sunday, the American president said he was willing to “talk” with the current Iranian leadership. A position that however changed on Tuesday, when, on Truth, he stated that it was “too late” to hold a dialogue. A few hours later, meeting Friedrich Merz at the White House, the American president specified that the people he had thought of to lead Iran in the post-Khamenei era are now dead. “Most of the people I had in mind for leadership are dead,” he said.
Add to this the fact that, in recent days, the occupant of the White House has opened up to the possibility of troops on Iranian territory. He explicitly stated this on Monday at New York Postspecifying that he is ready to take a similar step “if necessary”. Also, on Tuesday, the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump would be “open to supporting groups in Iran willing to take up arms to overthrow the regime.” “An idea,” continued the newspaper, “that could transform Iranian factions into ground forces.”
Besides, always on Tuesday, Axios revealed that, on Sunday, the American president had a telephone conversation with Iraq’s Kurdish leaders, in which he spoke about the current offensive against the Islamic Republic. “The Kurds have thousands of soldiers along the Iran-Iraq border and control strategic areas that could prove significant as the war evolves,” the newspaper highlighted, before adding that “Iraqi Kurds also have close ties with Iran’s Kurdish minority.” It seems, in particular, that Sunday’s phone call took place under pressure from Benjamin Netanyhau. “The CIA is working to arm Kurdish forces with the aim of fomenting a popular uprising in Iran,” CNN reported earlier.
In short, the American president would be increasingly inclined to rely on local and regional armed groups to overthrow what remains of the Khomeini regime through ground operations. In such a framework, the Kurds could play a decisive role. In this respect, two considerations are important.
The first is that, if he were to actually decide to support the Kurds, Trump would probably irritate Recep Tayyip Erdogan. In recent months, the occupant of the White House and the sultan had become closer, especially on the Syrian dossier: Trump had in fact blessed the current pro-Turkish regime in Damascus, arousing Netanyahu’s discontent. The Turkish president, for his part, did not appreciate the Israeli-American military operation against the Islamic Republic in the slightest. Furthermore, Iranian retaliation against the Gulf countries has pushed Qatar and Saudi Arabia to take a hard line towards the ayatollahs. Which represents a problem for Erdogan, who has historic ties with Doha and who, in recent months, had become very close to Riyadh.
The second consideration is that Trump seems less willing now to pursue a Venezuelan solution. Originally, the American president, after the killing of Ali Khamenei, aimed to find a tame interlocutor within the old system of power. However, as he himself admitted on Tuesday, all the names he had in mind are dead. Meanwhile, if he were to give the go-ahead to a Kurdish-led ground operation, it would mean he would no longer consider the Khomeini regime an interlocutor. On the other hand, Trump on Tuesday once again expressed skepticism about Reza Pahlavi’s potential political role. This is a sign that the American president has perhaps not yet identified a figure for a possible transition of power.
