With the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which more than a fifth of the world’s oil passes, petrol and bills risk skyrocketing. European stock markets in the red, tourism and goods at a standstill: the crisis in the Middle East becomes a global shock
European stock markets in deep red, oil towards 100 dollars, 500 thousand passengers on the ground, goods blocked, chaos in the skies. The crisis in the Middle East is a global economic shock that affects financial markets, energy, transport, tourism and industry. After the attack by the United States and Israel on Iran, Tehran’s response and the widening of the war in the last few hours, European stock markets opened the week with a thud. But the The real big global problem is called the Strait of Hormuz: the maritime corridor through which more than a fifth of the world’s oil and more than 30% of liquefied natural gas passes. The blockade of the strait creates the planet’s energy bottleneck.
European stock markets in the red: oil up, airlines down
The stock exchanges of the Old Continent gave a clear signal this morning. Brent soars above 80 dollars a barrel, with an increase of more than 10%, and analysts do not rule out 100 or even 110-130 dollars in the event of a blockade of Hormuz. The market fears a reduction in the global supply of crude oil, which historically pushes prices to rise rapidly. If the 20 million barrels a day passing through the strait were stopped, the impact would be immediate. On the stock market, airlines in particular are collapsing, penalized by high fuel prices and chaos in the Gulf hubs. Energy stocks are holding up, while banks are looking with concern at the risks to inflation and growth.
Strait of Hormuz closed: the world’s energy bottleneck
Iranian oil, at around 1.6 million barrels per day, is not considered irreplaceable. OPEC+ has already announced a production increase of around 206 thousand barrels per day from April. But the problem is not so much production, but global energy logistics.
The Strait of Hormuz is approximately 39 kilometers long and measures just 33 kilometers at its narrowest point, but more than 20% of the world’s oil transported by sea and a similar share of LNG pass through it. The presence of Iranian military ships, interdiction radio messages and attacks on oil tankers have made transit impassable for most commercial ships. “War risk” insurance premiums have risen by up to 50% and in several cases coverage has been withdrawn. Without insurance, no ship can cross the strait. The pipeline alternatives set up by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have a capacity limited to around 2.6 million barrels per day, a fraction of the volumes normally in transit. The result is an energy bottleneck that risks trapping oil and gas upstream, with immediate effects on global prices.
Gas, bills and inflation: the risk for Europe and Italy
If Europe has diversified supplies in oil after the Ukrainian crisis, vulnerability remains high in gas. Qatar is the world’s second largest LNG supplier and represents around 45% of sea imports for Italy. Qatari methane tankers pass through Hormuz and have no alternative routes. A potential loss of more than 100 billion cubic meters of gas would exceed Russian volumes that failed in 2022. Then the price of gas at the TTF exceeded 340 euros/MWh. A similar scenario would reignite the energy crisis. For families and businesses it would mean more expensive petrol, rising electricity and gas bills and new price increases on industrial products. According to various estimates, oil steadily above $100 could add between 0.6% and 0.7% to global inflation, putting pressure on central banks and their rate cut plans.
Flight chaos and tourism on its knees: holidays canceled and 500 thousand passengers stranded
The crisis is not limited to energy. What is being called the largest global air transport disruption in recent years is underway. The airspaces of Iran, Iraq, Israel and much of the Gulf are closed or severely restricted due to the risk associated with missiles, drones and anti-aircraft systems. The hubs of Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi, key hubs between Europe and Asia, are paralysed. Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad have suspended or drastically reduced flights. It is estimated that at least 500 thousand passengers are stranded.
The backlash on tourism is immediate. Holidays in the Maldives, Sri Lanka or South East Asia cancelled; students and workers in Australia or Japan unable to return; business trips suspended. Bookings suffer a collapse and the tourism sector, already fragile in some areas, risks a new stop.
Flights between Europe and Asia, already complicated by Russia’s overflight ban from 2022, are now concentrated on one or two alternative corridors, which are congested and considered high risk. Each additional hour of flight can cost up to 9 thousand euros in fuel and crew, with jet fuel on the rise and increasingly compressed margins for companies.
Goods blocked and industry under pressure
In the Gulf, approximately 170 container ships are stopped or waiting. Air cargo is also in difficulty, with capacity reductions reaching 80-100% in some areas. Consequences?Pharmaceuticals, electronics, chips for artificial intelligence, luxury and high value-added mechanics are subject to delays and price increases. Insurance premiums rise up to 0.5% of the value of the goods and transport costs increase for diversions and longer times.
For the Italian industry, which is heavily exporting, the combination of more expensive energy and slowed down logistics represents a double shock: rising costs and less predictability in deliveries.
Growth at risk: the Middle East crucial for the global economy
A scenario with Brent above $110 would have immediate macroeconomic effects: rising inflation, consumption under pressure, reduced corporate margins and central banks forced to review rate strategies and therefore mortgages for families and businesses. In the United States, the price of gasoline remains a politically sensitive variable. In Europe the risk is a new energy stagnation, with higher bills and public finances under stress due to possible support measures. The crisis in the Middle East is not just a geopolitical event: it is a global economic shock that affects financial markets, energy, transport, tourism and industry.
