The more time passes, the more it seems that the war in Ukraine is still far from over. The first six months of 2026 were in fact characterized by a substantial diplomatic dead endto which was added an intensification of the war in the skies.
Europe continued to roll out sanctions packages in an attempt to increase the economic cost of the war to Moscow. However, the conflict in the Middle East has precluded the vital supply of armaments (especially interceptors for the Patriots) in Kiev.
Negotiations suspended
Let’s start with the diplomatic impasse, which now seems destined to persist for a long time to come.
The first six months of 2026 saw no high-level Russia-Ukraine-US trilateral meeting, nor a repeat of the Anchorage summit between Putin and Trump. On January 22, the American President met Zelensky in Davoswith the announcement that the text of the US-Ukraine bilateral security guarantees was “substantially ready.”
Two rounds of trilateral talks followed in Abu Dhabifocusing on a possible energy ceasefire and control of Donbass, held on January 23-24 and February 4-5. These talks followed another round in Genevaon February 17-18, on the eve of the fourth anniversary of the invasion (February 24).
The American envoy Steve Witkoff he had reported “significant progress” on ending the war, while Zelensky spoke of “difficult” negotiations and accused Moscow of stalling.
We then arrive at the fateful February 28th, and the beginning of the war against Iran. Since then, diplomacy has remained essentially at a standstill.
War on the field
We then move on to the front line, where almost all the losses caused by the largest European conflict since the Second World War are concentrated.
The first six months of the year saw Russian forces conduct limited offensives in Donbass, where in addition to the storming of the fortress of Pokrovskin the first months of 2026, the most recent one of Kostantinivka.
Further north, the city of Kupianskprematurely declared taken by the Russian Ministry of Defense, was instead the scene of a limited Ukrainian counteroffensive. To this day the city, totally destroyed, remains a battlefield.
Further south, Russian efforts focused on the city of Huliaipole and straddling the regions of Zaporizhzhia And Dnipropetrovsk. The Russian offensive began in November 2025, with advances of approximately 18 km in two months between early November 2025 and early January 2026.
This part of the front has been the scene of a renewed series of Ukrainian counterattacks for months now, which have partially recovered the lost ground.
Overall, the war can be defined as almost static, with the main role now entrusted to drones, missiles and their respective production capabilities of these weapons.
Sanctions and European aid
On the sanctioning side, now the sole obsession of the European institutions, the EU decision of mid-December 2025 to finance Ukraine for 90 billion euros in the two-year period 2026-27.
All through a loan guaranteed by the community budget, Not via frozen Russian assets (around 210 billion euros, mostly held in Belgium at Euroclear), after opposition from Belgium and other countries.
On 23 April, the EU therefore adopted the 20th sanctions packageafter months of stalemate due to vetoes from Hungary and Slovakia, with 120 new designations and measures across the energy, banking and crypto sectors.
On 18 June the European Council reiterated its support for Ukraine and called for a rapid adoption of the 21st packagewhich however only arrived on July 23rd, outside the requested period.
Ukrainian internal politics
On the domestic front, while the forced mobilization of men for the Ukrainian Armed Forces continues, President Zelensky has had to face the most serious political scandal since the beginning of the war.
Called “Operation Midas”, the scandal had already exploded in November 2025, around the businessman Tymur MindichZelensky’s former associate. The chief of staff Andriy Yermak he had already resigned on November 28, 2025, after searches of his home, and was replaced by Rustem Umerov as chief negotiator in the peace talks.
However, between the end of April and May 2026, new transcripts emerged (“The Mindich Tapes”) that more directly involve the presidential circle. For the first time there may be evidence that President Zelensky has personally profited from corruptionalthough Zelensky himself is not formally under investigation.
On May 11, 2026 the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) formally indicted Yermak for money launderinglinked to the construction of a luxury residential complex near Kyiv.
In the background, the increasingly serious situation continues to take center stage demographic crisis of Ukraine. In the first six months of 2026, the Ukrainian population recorded a net loss due to natural decline of 186,561 people in government-controlled territories.
The overall population, in government-controlled areas, has plummeted to just 22-25 million people as stated by Minister of Social Policy, Family and Unity of UkraineDenys Uliutin, compared to a pre-war population of around 38 million people.
