What if the European elections were a wake-up call for Biden?

There do not appear to have been, at least for now, any significant official positions taken on the European elections in the United States. Yet it cannot exactly be said that the renewal of the European Parliament has gone unnoticed.

According to Reuters, Biden administration officials are carefully monitoring what is happening on the Old Continent. In particular, a government source told the news agency that “the United States does not expect major changes in foreign policy from the European Union, not even towards Ukraine.” Not only. Again according to the same source, the White House would currently expect that Ursula von der Leyen remain at the head of the European Commission. “However,” Reuters added, “a second advisor to the president Joe Biden expressed concern that the far-right party of Marine Le Pen may take a more skeptical stance towards NATO than French officials had previously done, posing a risk to a key alliance that Biden wants to strengthen.”

CNN also sounded an alarm bell for Biden, according to which the results of the European elections could represent an “omen for Trump”. “The Trump moment in Europe has arrived”, was the headline, for his part, Politic. “The right-wing surge in the European Union elections was driven by many of the same issues that worry voters in the United States, according to a poll,” he added. Washington Examiner. This means that Biden probably fears an indirect electoral backlash from the outcome of the European elections. It is no coincidence that they are among the winners of the round, held in the Old Continent Giorgia Meloni And Viktor Orban: two leaders who have close ties to the US Republican Party. On the other hand, even before the vote, some conservative think tanks across the Atlantic, such as the Hudson Institute, had shown sympathy for Meloni, predicting her central role in the formation of the next European Commission.

And the US electoral climate could indirectly play a role in the formation of the next Commission. The polls continue to show Donald Trump as extremely competitive, while Biden continues to lose ground. The hypothesis that a Republican administration could take office in 2025 is far from unlikely. A Republican administration which, in this case, would not have too much sympathy for the PSE: not only looking at its positions on the green but also, if not above all, in matters of foreign policy. Let's not forget that in recent years PSE members have occupied the position of High Representative for EU foreign policy. And that they have significantly brought Brussels closer to China, Cuba and Iran. In short, not exactly an Atlanticist line. This is an element that could weigh on the negotiation dynamics aimed at forming the new European Commission.