The Middle Eastern war shows no signs of abating, Brent oil prices are soaring, while gas is at a three-year high. The energy shock will be felt by businesses and families.
The new and devastating Middle Eastern conflict started by the United States and Israel against Iran has already had important consequences.
There closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the Iranian strikes that are hitting the Gulf monarchies have triggered one in a few days energy shock comparable to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Hundreds of oil and methane tankers found themselves stopped on the sides of that narrow strip of sea which divides the Persian Gulf from the Gulf of Oman, while global logistics giants such as Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and MSC have suspended transits in the area.
Gas prices skyrocket, oil is also growing
Today the European stock markets opened in sharp declinebut it is energy prices that are of greatest concern. The Brentthe European oil benchmark, soared 83 dollars a barrelcompared to $72.8 at Friday’s close.
It’s even worse for gas, there Amsterdam stock exchange (the TTF, the main European hub of reference also for Italy) recorded even more violent increases: prices rose from 31 euros per megawatt hour on Friday to 60 todaya 100% increase.
The detonator is not only the closure of the Strait, through which approximately 20 percent of global oil and gas trade passes. From the factory of Ras Laffanin Qatar (the largest LNG plant in the world) QatarEnergy announced the suspension of liquefied natural gas production after military attacks on its infrastructure.
What it means for Italian supplies
Italy is a country structurally dependent on the import of natural gaswith consumption exceeding 63 billion cubic meters in 2025.
After the shock of 2022, when Russian gas represented over 40 percent of supplies, Rome carried out a profound diversification. Today the main supplier via pipeline is Algeria, which guarantees approximately 33 percent of the national requirement through the Transmed methane pipeline.
This is followed by Azerbaijan via the TAP corridor (about 16 percent), Northern Europe via the Gries Pass (about 14 percent) and a now negligible residual Russian share, which dropped to 1.2 percent after the end of the Ukrainian transit contract.
The big news in recent years, however, is the rise of liquefied natural gas (LNG), which in 2025 overtook Algeria as the main source of supply for the first time, covering 34 percent of total consumption, with an increase of 41 percent on 2024 volumes.
Thanks to the entry into operation of the new regasifiers in Piombino and Ravenna, which brought the national capacity to 28 billion cubic meters per year.
Among LNG suppliers, the United States took first place with 44 percent of total cargoes, followed by Qatar (24 percent) and from Algeria (21 percent).
And this is where the greatest risk lies: Qatar, whose supplies pass almost entirely through the Strait of Hormuz, covers approximately a quarter of the LNG imported by Italyequal to over 7 percent of the overall national gas requirement.
A share which, for the moment, cannot be replaced with other suppliers without resorting to the spot market, at significantly higher prices.
Returning to 2022?
The scenario that lies ahead could be, alas, similar to 2022, when in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine inflation exceeded 12 percentgas bills for families doubled and the cost of energy became the main factor squeezing industrial margins.
Today, with Hormuz blocked and the oil and gas of the Gulf countries stopped, the mechanisms would be similar.
According to the estimates of Conflavoro Study Centera prolonged closure of the Strait could cost Italy up to 33 billion euros in six months, equal to around 1.5 percent of GDP, with peaks of 3.5 percent for the manufacturing sector. Household and business bills could increase by between 30 and 40 percent.
The signs are already visible. According to data from Codacons, petrol prices have already recorded the first increases, with green petrol rising to 1.681 euros per liter and diesel to 1.736 – and in the next few days, if oil prices do not return to previous levels, significant increases are expected.
Particularly exposed would be the Italian manufacturing sector, which absorbs over 31 percent of national gas consumption. In an extreme scenario, the president of Conflavoro Roberto Capobianco does not rule out energy rationing for non-strategic industries.
The Middle Eastern crisis therefore risks becoming yet another shock of these unfortunate twenties.
