Russia-Ukraine, something is moving. A new event on the international scene, or rather two, have shaken the still earth into which the armies of Kiev and Moscow are increasingly sinking – with the variable North Korea, whose participation in the conflict is the third event that subverts the inertia of the last months of the war and represents a possible “game changer”.
The first two are the change that occurred in the White House, with the spectacular return of Donald Trump to the helm of the American superpower; and the earthquake in the German government, which prompted the outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz to make a phone call in limine mortis to Vladimir Putin (the historic direct line between Moscow and Berlin has never been severed) to tell him bluntly: «Withdraw the troops and negotiate with Kiev». “Okay,” replied the Russian president, almost flattered by the unusual gesture of one of Ukraine’s biggest supporters, “but the agreement is made only on the basis of new territorial realities.” It’s not much, but it’s a sign.
What does this summary tell us, which is also confirmed by accredited sources, unlike the Trump-Putin phone call, denied by those directly involved and to date supported only by Washington Post? He informs us that, probably for the first time, the minimum conditions have been created to start a serious discussion, complete with maps in hand, and all parties are ready to listen to the peace offers and evaluate them.
Try asking Volodymyr Zelensky, who after Scholz’s phone call declared: «Ukraine must do everything to end the war in 2025 through diplomacy», then adding almost out of obligation, «but only if we start from a “strong Ukraine”». It may not seem like much, but for the diplomatic dictionary it is already a lot, a big step forward. It means that “Pandora’s box” – as Zelensky himself stigmatized the Scholz-Putin call – has been opened and, as the myth has it, it cannot be recorked. With all the consequences that this fact implies.
First of all, there is no going back from the American election and therefore from Donald Trump’s absolute desire to establish a historic peace in the turbulent region of European Russia, a starter for his foreign policy, and then aim to “repeat the miracle” also in the Middle East where – at least in Trump’s mind – Saudi Arabia and Israel together can direct the transition of the region from a theater of war to a peaceful rebirth of Arab capitalism, with Iran resized and normalized.
The American president does not want an agreement on the head of Ukraine, nor does he intend to give Putin more than it is worth: as a good salesman, he thinks that a bad agreement between Russia and Ukraine is better than no agreement. “They have to stop it,” he declared, as would a teacher who wants to separate two unruly students. But in the meantime he got the attention of Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. In the shadows for some time, he re-emerged from the dark rooms of the Kremlin where he had barricaded himself, to declare: “We await the American proposals, they have our full attention” and this is certainly an outstretched hand of Russian diplomacy, which is going in the desired direction.
Secondly, there is the will – once again American – not to really abandon Europe and Russia to their own destinies, because this would mean for both (albeit for diametrically opposed reasons) to end up sooner or later in the hands of China . This is already the case for Russia, and those continuous Brics summits – which intend to subvert the world order led by the American dollar – are a clear sign of this, which Washington is careful not to underestimate.
Thirdly, in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict China has everything to gain and today fully embodies the proverb attributed to Confucius that by sitting on the riverbank and waiting, sooner or later it will see the enemy’s corpse pass by. Beijing is in no hurry to see Kiev and Moscow negotiate a peace; on the contrary, from its privileged position it waits to understand how this crisis will be resolved, taking advantage of the weakness of each party involved.
As political scientists know well, in politics we must always indicate an objective to be achieved and, in the case of an empire, it is essential to also elect an enemy, real or presumed. Donald Trump has chosen Xi Jinping and China as his rival, a superpower to be contained and to which it is essential to compete for strategic alliances. Russia, in terms of specific weight, participates in a lower league and is nowhere near as good as China, the only country that really manages to disturb the sleep of the American capitalist elite.
If the USA and China in today’s geopolitical and geoeconomic context can only be two opposing and antithetical states, the same cannot be said for Moscow, which is ultimately Europe and, if it were not for the warmongering imprint of Vladimir Putin, with it could collaborate amiably: as Germany did for decades, until the gas pipeline explosion Nordstream 2 it did not definitively sever an umbilical cord that had lasted between the two countries since at least the Second World War (sealed by the Ostpolitik). Just as the division of the «Reich» between the United States and Russia marked the change of an era, so also from Germany came the signal that an era was now ending: it happened when the collapse of the Berlin Wall corresponded to the end of the Union Soviet and little by little the rise of the Putin regime designed a new world. Today Berlin no longer matters so much, and indeed its diminutio it worries the other European states and Russia itself quite a bit.
Also for this reason, today there is more chance than ever of reaching a negotiating table. Before Ukraine collapses under the inexorable blows of the inexhaustible weapons at the Kremlin’s disposal, thanks to the solidarity of other dictators. Before Russia ends up submitting to China, definitively alienating itself from the West. Before ancient disagreements reignite between North and South Korea. Before Israel and Iran’s attempts to clash are seen as justified by other ongoing wars. Before Turkey finds itself unbalanced towards the East. Before one or more countries of the Atlantic Alliance destroy NATO through self-consumption. Before Europe once again becomes the theater of a world conflict.
