The closure of Hormuz also affects agricultural nitrogen fertilizers. The first price increases have already been recorded, but a prolonged closure of the Persian Gulf will have a greater impact on consumers.
While energy markets take a deep breath after the promise of Donald Trump about a “nearly completed” war with Iran, the closure de facto of the Strait of Hormuz it is also causing upward effects on prices and production fertilizers.
Why Hormuz is vital for fertilizers
The importance of the bottleneck in the Persian Gulf goes, alas, beyond hydrocarbons. From it, in fact, Approximately one third of global trade passes through urea (the most used nitrogen fertilizer) and up to 50% of global exports of sulfuressential for sulfuric acid in phosphate fertilizers.
What makes the picture even more worrying is the production structure of the region, because the Persian Gulf hosts some of the world’s largest reserves of natural gasthe essential raw material for the synthesis of ammonia, from which nitrogen fertilizers are derived.
In other words, it is not just a transit route: the region is the beating heart of production itself.
Three of the world’s ten largest exporters of urea, viz Qatar (11% of global trade), Iran (10-12%) e Saudi Arabiadepend on the Strait to access international markets.
Prolonged closure of the Strait could therefore reduce global sulfur supply by more than 40% and urea supply by 30% on an annual basis.
Rises in the markets
The effects on the markets materialized with a speed that surprised even the most pessimistic analysts. In New Orleans, the main import hub of the United States, i Urea prices have reached 520-550 dollars per toncompared to an average of $475 the previous week.
In the following days, prices rose further, touching $683 per tonne, the highest level recorded since records began in August 2025.
On the Brazilian market, another large importer, granular urea prices rose to $540-545 per ton, the highest level since Platts began recording in August 2025.
It’s not just urea that moves: ammonia prices increased by 16%, phosphate prices by 6% and sulfur by 7%.
The timing, then, couldn’t be worse. We are in full pre-planting season for the Northern Hemispherewhich is the time of year when fertilizer demand reaches its seasonal peak.
What do more expensive fertilizers imply
But let’s see the concrete implications of this nitrogen fertilizer crisis. If prices rise, wheat, corn and rice crops become more expensive.
The price transmission chain from the Persian Gulf to supermarkets is direct: More expensive fertilizers mean higher agricultural production costs, which translate into higher final prices for consumers.
For Italy the risk is real. Our country does not produce nitrogen fertilizers in significant quantities and depends largely on the international market, with supplies traditionally linked to Russia (today almost inaccessible due to sanctions), North Africa and, indeed, the Persian Gulf.
The most exposed crops are cereal crops, such as durum wheat for pasta and corn for livestock farmingwhich require high nitrogen inputs and whose production costs are directly sensitive to the price of urea.
Without a quick and definitive closure to the Middle Eastern conflict (or at least an effective reopening of the Strait of Hormuz) today’s high fertilizer costs will be reflected in food prices over the next 18-24 months. The result, therefore, will be more expensive food for everyone.
