The issue of crude oil is becoming increasingly central. The president will release part of the national reserves and could order the escorting of oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz
The Trump administration has announced that, starting next week, it will release 172 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve: the move clearly intends to counter the increase in oil prices, which occurred following the Israeli-American attack on Iran. On the other hand, the oil sector is the main issue that the occupant of the White House needs to resolve.
On the one hand, the Wall Street Journal reported that various advisors to the president are urging him to quickly end the conflict with Tehran, as they are increasingly worried about the increase in gasoline prices in the United States: a factor that could weigh negatively on the Republican Party in view of the mid-term elections. It is also for this reason that, on Monday, Donald Trump said that the war will end “soon”. That said, the president did not provide a specific timeline. On Wednesday evening, he said, yes, that Iran is “pretty much at the end of the line,” but he also added that this does not imply an immediate end to the conflict.
Even though I’m looking for one exit strategyTrump knows well that the Pasdaran intend to make his life difficult in the Strait of Hormuz, to weaken him in view of the mid-term elections. Furthermore, approximately 20% of the world’s oil passes through that area. The interruption of navigation therefore has significant effects on the increase in crude oil prices. It is with this in mind that, on Wednesday, the American president urged oil tankers to use the Strait. “I think they should use it, we destroyed almost all of their minelaying ships in one night,” he said, referring to the Iranians. It is also no mystery that the Pentagon has been evaluating for days the possibility of providing armed escorts to oil tankers passing through the Strait.
In short, on the one hand Trump is trying to accelerate the conclusion of the conflict to avoid a further increase in crude oil prices; on the other hand, the Pasdaran, by making navigation in Hormuz difficult, aim to keep those same prices high, with the precise aim of politically attacking the American president. Indeed, it is precisely to address this vulnerability that, as we have seen, the United States Department of Energy is preparing to release part of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. However, it cannot be ruled out at all that, beyond operations against minelaying ships, Washington may shortly proceed with armed escorts, even if this certainly would not speed up the conclusion of the conflict.
More generally, for the White House the oil issue is inextricably linked to the future political-institutional structure of Iran. Trump has made it clear that he is leaning towards a Venezuelan solution: in other words, he wants as an interlocutor a figure “internal” to the old decapitated regime, after having adequately “tamed” it. The American president in fact needs stability both to avoid costly operations nation building and because he wants to cooperate with Tehran in the oil sector: which is necessary for him to hit China in terms of energy supply and currency. This is why, in recent days, he has pushed Israel to renounce the scenario regime change classic, also asking the Jewish State to no longer attack Iranian oil infrastructure.
