The race for the main raw materials for energy dominance, and not only that, also takes place along the ocean floor. The USA and China lead the way, thanks to the absence of rules. Italy is trying to create an autonomous path between Africa and recycling.
If you look at them, they look like potatoes covered in dirt. Small rocks found on the ocean floor at a depth of over 3,000 metres. Dark and lumpy. Yet they are fundamental chemical elements for producing car batteries and technological components that companies (but nations first and foremost) extremely need. Also, and above all, in the military sphere. They are the famous rare earths which, in reality, are not rare but which are so because they are difficult to bring to the surface. This is the so-called deep sea mining, underwater mining. Small robots dive into the oceans and pick up the agglomerates which are then sucked into a ship via tubes. From here, they will end up on the mainland to be fed into the processing chain. A long and complex process.
Only a few countries are “lucky” to have these elements on their national territory – or rather: in the depths of their waters – and can access them to satisfy their own, and also our, needs. Rare earths are the new game changer and managing to extract them is the challenge of the century. Only from this perspective can we understand the political and military moves of the main world powers (China and the United States in the lead): the hoarding of these elements, in fact, is essential for anyone who aspires to maintain technological and military supremacy.
History teaches that when a good – like oil in the past, for example – becomes indispensable for the technological evolution of mankind, a new gold rush is unleashed. From this assumption of “necessity”, wars and conflicts have arisen in the past which have changed the global political and strategic order. And Beijing, Washington and even Moscow know this well. The goal of these nations is not only to dominate the seas and oceans but, above all, to control the value chains that make rare earths usable.
Globally, this leads to increasing fragmentation of supply chains, rising costs and increased pressure on resource-rich countries, especially in Africa, Latin America and Central Asia.
As is known, China has long had an advantage given its fortunate geographical position. An advantage that the American president, Donald Trump, wants to undermine, so much so that at the beginning of the year he began to develop new rules to simplify the authorization procedures for deep-sea mining activities. A decision also made possible by the fact that the USA has not yet ratified the ISA regulations (the international seabed authority). They can therefore write the law they deem most useful at home, without worrying too much about international regulations. A bit like the Dragon, which has long controlled a large part of the refining and production activities of permanent magnets, essential for strategic sectors such as electric cars, renewable energy, electronics and defence. This gives the country great bargaining power. But not only that: being at the technological forefront, often many countries, which also have rare earths, have to turn to Beijing and its supply chain to proceed with extraction and processing. Xi Jinping knows that he is therefore in a position of strength and that he can open, but above all close, the taps depending on whether the international situation is favorable to him or not.
Italy, as often happens, plays the part of the earthenware vase among the iron ones. Dependent on the Eastern giant (like most Western countries), the Bel Paese is intent on finding alternative sources. It is no coincidence that among the many objectives of the Mattei Plan there is precisely that of ensuring – in Mozambique, Congo and Tanzania – new supplies of critical minerals. And, together, to try to recover them from household appliances that should be scrapped but which still have precious and reusable parts.
An operation that is not at all easy, taking into account that the largest deposits found in the depths of the oceans are still far from being reachable. If we analyze their location we can see how the richest place in rare earths is the Pacific Ocean. And it is precisely in this blue expanse that, for years, the geopolitical interests of two superpowers have converged which, coincidentally, are located exactly at its extremities: the United States and China. If we consider the fact that deep-sea mining will certainly be cleared for the aforementioned reasons of necessity, it is certain that the Pacific will be even more of a “coveted terrain” and that the next war for the supply chain will be fought here.
But not only that. Let’s think for a moment about current wars, in particular those that pit a superpower against a simple nation, albeit a fierce one: Russia against Ukraine, for example. Or the United States and Israel against Iran.
In which domain did two “normal” powers put the giants of war in difficulty? The answer is certain: in the underwater one. Ships and structures worth millions of dollars have been hit and destroyed by tools costing a few hundred thousand dollars, assembled with parts that can also be found on the free market.
Iran is bringing the world economy (essentially based on oil and gas) to its knees by blocking the Strait of Hormuz with intelligent mines, underwater drones and mini submarines that not even the United States and Israel are able to counter. In the scenario beneath the sea surface, David can actually bring Goliath to his knees. The Cold War, then, taught us that in the depths there were clashes that never came to the surface. Who remained there, in the abyss, without anyone knowing anything. And this is because, as they say, torpedoes don’t carry license plates.
If we now combine the interest of two superpowers (but also of all the largest nations in the world) for what the oil of the next century will be with an environment in which it is possible to move unnoticed, the game is done: the depths of the Pacific Ocean will be the next battlefield. And what will the targets be? Precisely the underwater extraction infrastructures. Furthermore, considering that the basis of the future space economy is exactly mining on other planets, we can already hypothesize that deep-sea mining will not only be a strategic target to hit, but also a testing ground for space mining.
The war, although invisible, has already begun. And it widens to sea and sky.
