Hormuz closure exacerbates jet fuel shortage. The EU is preparing measures to save holidays.
The approaching summer (and holidays) couldn’t happen in a more uncertain context than the one we find ourselves in. A fragile one ceasefire in the Middle Eastit Strait of Hormuz still closed and with it the flow of hydrocarbons vital to the global economy.
One of the strongest impacts was had on kerosene for aircraft the shortage of which, if prolonged, could lead to expensive increases in ticket prices and the cancellation of flights.
To avoid this eventuality, the European Commission has developed an emergency plan to guarantee maximum production of this fuel.
Dependence on imported jet fuel
In fact, practically all the major European airlines have raised the alarm about one possible shortage of fuel within a few weeks, the natural consequence of which would be inconvenience for travel ahead of the summer.
Europe depends on the Middle East for approximately 75% of its net imports of jet fuel, or about 375,000 barrels per day, more than any other transportation fuel.
If crude oil imported to feed European refineries (from which jet fuel is refined) is included, the EU’s total dependence on external oil and petroleum products stands at around 96-97%.
The EU plan
It is therefore necessary to act effectively and quickly, a combo that Brussels rarely manages to implement. There is always a first time, however, and it is to be hoped that this is that “time”.
Starting next month, the European Commission will implement a continental level mapping of the refining capacity of petroleum products. They will follow measures “to ensure that existing refining capacity is fully utilized and maintained”.
Furthermore, as reported by Reuters, the EU is working on measures relating to the supply of aviation fuelbut such measures are still being developed.
These measures should be presented on April 22nd, within the broader “package of emergency measures for energy”which could also include joint purchasing at European level and a relaxation of import rules,
Race against time
It should be noted that the EU plan may not be enough, however. In fact, the most important variable remains the Strait of Hormuzits reopening, in fact, would give a breath of fresh air to the aviation fuel sector (also bringing down the price).
If the situation does not change, however, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warns that by offsetting at least half of Middle Eastern supplies, a serious shortage could loom by June.
Some of it was made up for with the import of jet fuel from the United States. Inflows from America are expected to reach between 149,000 and 200,000 barrels per day in April, according to Kpler data, but it may not be enough.
Second Grazia VittadiniCTO of Lufthansa, «our suppliers (of jet fuel) are changing their forecast horizons and are no longer willing to provide forecasts for a time frame longer than one month», uncertainty therefore continues to reign supreme, with it the upcoming summer holidays.
