The Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed the full support of Tehran to Lebanon during a meeting in the Iranian capital with Hassan FadlallahHezbollah MP. At the end of the conversation, Araghchi sent a message to Telegram in which he celebrated what he defined as the “resistance” and “dignified resilience” of the Lebanese population in the face of Israeli operations. Fadlallah, for his part, urged Muslim countries to build a common and decisive line against Israel, referring to the operations conducted in Lebanon, the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. The statements come as Israel reports growing activity along the route used to transfer weapons from Syria to Lebanon. According to what Channel 12 News reported, in recent times the security forces have recorded an increase in attempts to get weapons across the Syrian border, with the final destination Hezbollah.
The Quds Force’s clandestine route to Lebanon
In particular, the safety devices indicate in the Go Quds of the Guardians of the Revolution, the structure responsible for financing, coordinating and directing the operations necessary to get the armaments into the hands of the Lebanese Shiite movement. For Israel, this activity would demonstrate that Hezbollah is trying to use the post-ceasefire phase to rebuild its military capabilities. The objective would be to recover at least part of the arsenal and the lost infrastructure, taking advantage above all of the connections that cross Syrian territory. An Israeli defense source cited in the report claims that Hezbollah has intensified its attempts to transfer war material through Syria for this very reason. According to the same source, only a part of the shipments are discovered and blocked, while numerous loads manage to pass the controls and reach their destination. In recent months the Syrian and Lebanese armies have released photographs and videos relating to the seizure of weapons and military material. These interventions, however, would not have interrupted the clandestine flow. In fact, the Israeli authorities believe that significant quantities of armaments continue to transit along these routes without being detected. It is also for this reason that Israel considers it essential to maintain the possibility of militarily intervening in Syrian territory. The discovery of a particularly important shipment destined for Hezbollah could in fact be considered sufficient to justify a preventive operation against the cargo, depots or facilities used for the transfer of weapons.
The either/or of the United States and the issue of disarmament in Gaza
At the same time, another decisive game is being played on the Gaza front, where the talks with Hamas in Cairo have reached a particularly delicate stage. Again according to Channel 12 News, the United States would have sent an explicit warning to the leaders of the Palestinian terrorist organization: any attempt to circumvent the agreements, maintain hidden arsenals or evade disarmament obligations would cause the end of the diplomatic path. The message would be delivered directly from Jared Kushner during a meeting with Khalil al-Hayyaone of the main executives of Hamas. The meeting would have been organized after intelligence information shared with Washington and the mediating countries indicated the existence, within Hamas, of sectors intent on avoiding the complete dismantling of its military capabilities. According to two sources present at the meeting, Kushner made it clear to the mediators that the concrete behavior of Hamas will represent the real test. «The real test will be implementation. If you try to deceive us, the process will stop and no one will oppose Israel,” he reportedly told the organization’s representatives. The American envoy also recalled Israel’s deep distrust of Hamas. The principle illustrated would be very simple: if Israel respects the commitments undertaken within the framework of the agreement, Hamas will also have to fully apply what was agreed. This would mean proceeding with disarmament, giving up the reconstruction of the military apparatus and accepting the demilitarization of the Strip. According to officials involved in the negotiations cited by the Israeli broadcaster, Kushner is determined above all to prevent the restoration of the previous situation, in which Hamas had for years managed to simultaneously maintain political control of Gaza and an important military capacity. Any failure to comply with the agreements, according to this approach, would also end up providing Israel with much greater international support for a new operation against the organization. Hamas leaders would have assured the mediators that they were ready to respect all 20 clauses of the proposed agreement, including the most delicate ones regarding the delivery of weapons and demilitarization of the Strip. However, the fundamental question remains open: determining whether these assurances will really translate into concrete behaviour. After years of rearmament, violations and reconstruction of its military capabilities, considering Hamas’s promises alone as sufficient appears extremely difficult.
