Supreme Commander Alexus Grynkewich illustrates the strategy to stop a possible Russian offensive against the Alliance: drones, ground robots, long-range missiles and digital networks. But ammunition supplies are under pressure and the possible reduction of the American military presence in Europe is fueling allies’ concerns.
On Monday, the military summit of BORN he tried to reassure someoneEurope concerned, presenting the Alliance’s new plan to counter a possible Russian offensive on the Eastern Front. The strategy combines weapons, autonomous technologies and sensors, drawing on what was learned in Ukraine. In his speech, General Alexus Grynkewich illustrated the “victory theory” of BORN: first stop the attack, then, if necessary, prevent the opponent from coordinating and supplying his troops. The intent is to stop the invasion from the early stages, limiting the risk that the conflict degenerates into a conventional or nuclear clash. We do not aim for the total destruction of the enemy. After speaking at the Security Forum of Warsawto, Grynkewich he explained that he had exposed the plan both to reassure Europeans, alarmed by Russian moves, and to send a warning to anyone thinking of attacking Alliance territory. The message, he said, is simple: “We will get through this.”
GrynkewichUS Air Force general, leads the US forces in Europe and holds the role of supreme commander of NATO. He spoke in Poland, a close ally of Washington, where concern is growing about Washington’s intentions Vladimir Putin as the war in Ukraine enters its fifth year. The general addressed Moscow — without citing it openly — indirect warnings. Meanwhile, President Trump’s sudden statements over the weekend surprised both European allies and some members of the US Congress. After announcing a deal to import Russian diesel, Trump criticized the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky for attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and then declared an energy truce between Russia And Ukraine. The consequences of his diplomatic contacts with Moscow risked overshadowing Grynkewich’s speech.
Kurt Volkerformer US representative to NATO and then envoy to Ukraine during Trump’s first term, observed that military planning is necessary, but not enough: concerns related to Trump’s utterances, the Russian war against Ukraine, the risks for Europe and possible cuts to the American military presence on the continent must be addressed. Several Republicans have contested the diesel deal, arguing that it would provide Moscow with valuable economic resources without significantly lowering energy costs in the United States. Additionally, shortly after the energy truce was announced, Russian forces struck a power plant in Kharkiv, Ukraine. The very need to reassure allies shows how much the situation has changed for NATO. After the Cold War, the Alliance hoped to reap the benefits of lasting peace; today it has to deal with a Russia that has become aggressive again, responsible for the invasion of Ukraine and accused of violating Western airspace with drones and sabotage against European infrastructures, military assets and defense companies. A senior German intelligence official called these incidents a “shadow war.” Western governments are struggling to find effective responses to Russian hybrid operations while at the same time preparing defenses against possible broader attacks on the Baltics and other NATO members on their eastern border.
Previously, Western officials believed that once the war ended in Ukraine, it would be at least a couple of years before Moscow could muster enough men and armaments for a significant invasion of Allied territory. Now, however, the BORN runs to strengthen his defenses. Putin is trying to push European governments to reduce military assistance to Kiev; according to German officials, among the actions attributed to Moscow there would also be the sending of an explosive drone towards Leipzig airport. Grynkewich reported that the classified version of the plan was completed three months ago. It also includes the purchase of low-cost systems, such as the drones successfully used by Ukraine, to complement the Alliance’s most advanced weapons. In the event of a Russian attack, the priority would be to halt the initial offensive and prevent the enemy from gaining ground. If necessary, the general explained, NATO would strike adversary forces and the operational structures that support them, interrupting their supplies and command communications, to the point of reducing their capabilities. Grynkewich clarified that the plan is not aimed at strategically defeating Russia or overthrowing its government. The aim is to prevent an attack from being able to consolidate. The commander did not indicate when the defenses will be fully upgraded. The work proceeds as the conflict in Iran is helping to deplete ammunition supplies.
Europe is notably missing some American systems, including air defense missiles PAC-3 Patriot and the down-to-earth ones ATACMS. Some of the US ammunition was transferred to Middle East to face Iran. Meanwhile, the Pentagon is completing a comprehensive review of the American military presence in Europe, which could lead to a reduction in troops in the region. The strategy of BORN it partly takes up the ideas of retired general Chris Donahue, former commander of the US Army in Europe and responsible for the Alliance’s Land Command. Donahue left the post in July after Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth scaled back his role. The plan was designed to address Russia’s geographic advantages and its large arms industry, factors that could allow it to quickly concentrate forces against the Baltic states, Poland and other allied countries, before NATO can mount an adequate response. A vast “autonomous zone” would allow drones and ground robots to counter the Russian advance while limiting losses among allied forces. Meanwhile, long-range missiles would target Russian command centers and air defenses in the enclave Kaliningrad, near St. Petersburgand in Belarus. This would make it more difficult for Moscow to gain control of the airspace, paving the way for a counteroffensive by the US V Corps and other ground units. BORN.
The Allied air force would intervene quickly against reinforcements heading to the front and other targets in the rear. The operations would be coordinated by a digital network capable of sharing confidential information on targets in real time via the cloud. Some components of the system have already been tested in the Middle East during the conflict between the United States and Iran. The initiative, called “Deterrence on the Eastern Flank”, aims to induce Putin to conclude that an attack is not worthwhile. To support this capability, Alliance countries conduct frequent exercises to test and demonstrate their preparedness. While Grynkewich spoke in Warsaw, more than 20,000 NATO troops were participating in “Steadfast Duel,” a ten-day exercise. The scenario envisioned approximately one million Allied soldiers fighting off an invasion from the east, led by a similarly sized force. For reasons of political sensitivity, the adversary was not identified as Russia.
The German brigadier general Thomas Lowin, present at part of the maneuvers at the US Army headquarters in Wiesbaden, said al Wall Street Journal that the exercise fully reflects the approach described by Grynkewich. A central aspect, he added, is the use of digital tools to analyze data, accelerate decisions and make common defense more effective. Another participant recalled that some exercises also simulated attacks against enemy command centers, using missiles launched from ground platforms. Second Grynkewichone of Moscow’s main objectives is to weaken Western resolve to support theUkraine. Therefore, an effective response is to demonstrate that support continues, including by increasing contributions to the program PURLacronym for Prioritized Ukraine Requirements Listis a NATO-backed mechanism that raises funds to purchase weapons for Kiev. Some former officials welcomed the updated strategy, but stressed that its effectiveness will depend on the resources actually made available. Jim Townsendformer Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Europe and the BORN during the administration Obamasaid the Alliance must move forward quickly and governments will need to ensure funding and political will. NATO can plan, he concluded, but it is up to individual countries to allocate the funds and prepare the troops.
