Moscow is aiming for an agreement between the three superpowers to end the war in Ukraine and redesign the spheres of influence. Kiev and European capitals fear being excluded from the negotiations.
The Russian president Vladimir Putin would have probed the willingness to organize a meeting with Donald Trump and Xi Jinping next month to address the war Ukraine. The goal of Kremlin it would be to arrive at an agreement capable of satisfying the requests of Fly and end a conflict that has lasted for four years now. The proposal, according to people informed of diplomatic contacts, would have been taken into consideration in discussions between the three powers. The initiative would allow the Russian leader to exploit the thaw in relations with the White Housea development that worries Kiev and several Western governments, both in the United States and in Europe. A direct confrontation between the three heads of state, without the participation of the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskywould constitute a precedent of great importance and would fuel the concerns of European chancelleries. The hypothesis was raised by Putin during a telephone conversation with Trump on October 9. This was reported by a former member of the Russian intelligence services, familiar with the matter. The same contact would have resulted in an agreement relating to the purchase of diesel from Russia by the Americans, subsequently destined for resale on international markets. Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesperson, acknowledged that the parties are considering the possibility of organizing a meeting. «There is still no precise definition either about the meeting or about the topics that could be addressed. All three countries, however, theoretically admit that such an event could take place”, he explained to the Wall Street Journal.
From Washington they specify that Trump has not approved the proposal
The same official, however, left open the possibility that the American president might evaluate it favorably, given his commitment to finding a way out of the war. During the election campaign, Trump had assured that he would resolve the crisis on the first day of the new mandate. Since then, almost two years have passed without the promise materialising. According to sources close to the consultations, Fly would have indicated a collateral meeting at the next meeting of the Economic Cooperation as a possible venue for the discussion Asia-PacificAPEC. As the Wall Street Journal writes, the summit is scheduled for November 18 and 19 in Shenzhen, an important industrial and technological center in southern China. The prospect of hosting a comparison between Washington, Fly And Beijing would offer to Xi Jinping the opportunity to increase the international weight of China and to accredit it as an interlocutor capable of promoting diplomatic agreements. Analysts specializing in Chinese dynamics believe that this would be a significant step in Beijing’s strategy. Russian officials would have presented the initiative to their Chinese interlocutors through official channels. According to people informed of the latest bilateral contacts, Beijing has made it known that it is not against it, provided that Trump accepts. «China aspires to be recognized as one of the decision-making centers of the world balance and, possibly, as an interlocutor capable of facilitating dialogue between the United States and Russia», observed Yun Sun, head of the program dedicated to China at the Stimson Center, a research institute based in Washington.
The American presidency did not want to make any statements on the hypothesis
The Chinese embassy in the US capital also did not respond to requests for clarification. According to the reconstruction of the former Russian intelligence official, Putin would have already advanced in the past to Trump And Xi the idea of bringing the three leaders together around the same table. However, the new initiative arrives at a delicate phase, in which the relationship between the Kremlin and Washington presents elements of tension and divergence. Trump recently reached an agreement with Putin for the supply of Russian diesel, with the declared aim of containing the cost of fuel in the United States. The rise in energy prices is in fact weighing on the American economy and risks compromising the electoral prospects of the Republicans in view of the mid-term elections. Furthermore, on Friday the American president suspended the application of most of the sanctions against Moscow provided for by a bipartisan legislation approved by Congress and signed last month. The decision also caused protests within the Republican front, involving some representatives close to Trump himself. A high representative of the White House he explained that the choice would be made after evaluating the limited availability of alternative tools to slow down the growth of energy prices. Industry specialists, however, attribute the current pressure on diesel prices above all to the war with Iran. The Russian supplies promised to the United Statesaccording to the sector’s assessments, would not have sufficient dimensions to substantially change the market balance. On the Ukrainian front, meanwhile, Trump has returned to show irritation towards Zelensky. The American president asked Kiev to stop raids against Russian oil facilities and even questioned the permanence of the current Ukrainian leadership. Diplomatic attempts promoted by the United States to reach a ceasefire and a political solution, meanwhile, continue to encounter obstacles.
Criticism of Zelensky and the Taiwan issue
Sunday, through a message published on Truth Social, Trump harshly criticized the Ukrainian president after an attack by Kiev’s forces on an oil terminal in St. Petersburg, Putin’s hometown. The American leader accused Ukraine of targeting Russian diesel refineries and claimed that Zelensky he would not intend to put an end to hostilities, going so far as to insinuate that this will never existed. For the Kremlin, a possible three-way meeting would have a meaning that goes beyond the search for a truce. Putin has long aimed to reaffirm Russia as an indispensable protagonist of international balances, a priority pursued since his arrival at the helm of the country in 2000. The hypothesized format would also have a politically relevant characteristic: the absence of Europe, considered by Fly one of the main obstacles to achieving its military and political goals in Ukraine. The former representative of the Russian intelligence services believes that Putin’s ambitions go far beyond simple negotiations on war. The Russian president would imagine an agreement between the three major powers comparable, in symbolic significance, to the Yalta conference of 1945, when the victorious powers of the Second World War discussed post-war arrangements. From this perspective, the comparison would serve to outline new areas of influence, although a result of this magnitude appears difficult to achieve. Even without a concrete agreement between Trump And Xia photograph of American, Russian and Chinese leaders discussing the future of a country at war would have considerable political consequences. TO Taiwan, such an image could reinforce the concern that the fate of the island will one day be addressed in negotiations between great powers, without adequate involvement of its representatives. Beijing continues to claim Taiwan as part of its territory and has not ruled out the use of force to bring the island, which has democratic institutions and an autonomous government, back under its control. For Xi, however, the operation would also entail risks. According to people briefed on the discussions, some Chinese officials fear that a meeting dominated by geopolitical rivalries could take away attention from the agenda that Beijing intends to promote during theAPECturning the event into a showcase of tensions between the great powers rather than an opportunity to consolidate China’s regional leadership. The Chinese president must also manage a complex relationship: maintaining collaboration with Putin without compromising China’s economic interests China in Europe. A summit with Trump and the Russian leader could expose Beijing to new pressures and make it more directly involved in the Ukrainian crisis. The consequences could have an impact on relations with European capitals, already worried about the progressive strategic rapprochement between them China And Russia.
