The American stock market is on the hunt for the new miracle drug and is focusing on anti-baldness molecules. Still in the testing phase, they have already attracted the interest of investors. And also of a giant like Novo Nordisk, which looks beyond medicines against obesity.
TO Wall Street It’s no longer enough to grow profits. You also need to grow your hair. After theArtificial intelligenceafter the revolution of anti-obesity drugs, after having transformed the scale into a new stock market indicator, the big pharmaceutical industry has found another terrain of conquest. It’s called baldness.
A huge market, because hair loss has a characteristic that Wall Street knows very well: it is universal. He doesn’t look at his bank balance, his profession, his age or his CV. Sooner or later, for many, the appointment with the mirror arrives. And at that moment every man and every woman become much less rational than they say in the analysts’ questionnaires. Thus follicles have become the new El Dorado. And the first titles have already begun to run.
The biopharmaceutical sector’s race between trials and triple-digit rallies
The most sensational case is that of Veradermicsa biopharmaceutical company specializing in dermatological and aesthetic treatments. Its ace in the hole is an oral drug currently in phase 3 of clinical trials and therefore very close to the finish line. The goal is ambitious: to become the first oral treatment approved by the technicians of Food and drug administration (the sheriffs of human health) for both male and female baldness.
The company went public in February last year and since then the stock has experienced a dizzying rally: around +500%. Analysts are very optimistic betting on a further 50% increase and among these there is also Citigroup which recently raised its target to $160.
But there is one detail that is best not to comb too much. Veradermics is not yet a profit machine. Research and trials are needed and the drug has yet to reach the market. Wall Street, however, has an extraordinary characteristic: it manages to spend tomorrow’s profits today.
The algorithm in the follicles and the maneuvers of the great global giants
Then there is Absci. Here the story becomes even more modern. The company doesn’t just develop traditional drugs. It has built a platform that combines generative artificial intelligence and synthetic biology to design therapeutic proteins and antibodies.
The flagship molecule is being studied as a possible treatment for hair growth and, at the same time, to combat menstrual and pelvic pain. We are in a less advanced clinical phase than Veradermics. Therefore the risk is greater. But, at least on paper, more room for growth.
In June Eli Lilly He put $40 million into the company and took about a 3% stake. Still a small share, but large enough to raise the antennas on Wall Street. And even a few hairs considering that Absci recorded a net loss of 33.2 million in the second quarter of this year. But as always the American stock market does not seem interested in today’s income statement. He’s buying tomorrow’s. A sophisticated form of faith.
The real point, however, is the big names. Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk they’re looking for the next chapter. Novo Nordisk recently expressed interest in the hair loss treatment market. Warning: this does not mean that I already have the new miracle ready to put in the pharmacy. The company has pointed to baldness as a possible area of expansion. But for Wall Street it often takes much less than a drug to get excited. Here come the analysts, the target prices, the presentations to investors and, of course, the rising graph.
In this race there is also Cosmo Pharmaceuticalswith clascoterone, a treatment intended for male hair loss.
The crossroads between laboratory and pharmacy in the new frontier of consumption
The new treatments are unlikely to hit U.S. shelves for at least a year. But analysts are already doing the math. Second JefferiesIn fact, sales of Cosmo’s therapy could reach $3 billion globally, assuming the company finds a commercial partner. The investment house expects Cosmo shares to almost double in the next twelve months. Of course it doesn’t say anywhere that this will happen. But the market, when it sees a possible 3 billion drug, begins to behave like the gentleman who discovers he still has a few more hairs in the photograph: he convinces himself that the situation is not that serious.
What’s interesting is that, as has happened with anti-obesity drugs, there may be room for more than one winner. “This sector can definitely support more drug companies,” said Roger Song, an analyst at Jefferies. “Many hair loss patients tend to use multiple medications, both prescription and over-the-counter, as long as they can afford them, because this is a market where consumers pay directly.” Analysts tracked by Bloomberg are optimistic about both Cosmo and Veradermics.
And this makes the game even more interesting. Because it’s not just about finding the product that works. We need to find what works best, what costs least, what has fewer side effects, what can be prescribed easily and what a large multinational will be willing to distribute all over the world.
And above all you have to get to the pharmacy. Because between the laboratory and the bench there is reality. Each of these companies has a different way of approaching it. Veradermics, for example, focuses on a pill. Absci on the combination of artificial intelligence and biology. Cosmo on a topical therapy. Lilly looks to technology. Novo Nordisk is aiming straight at the market. And Wall Street looks at everyone. It’s capitalism applied to vanity. But it would be a mistake to dismiss it as a simple aesthetic affair.
Male pattern baldness affects a huge audience (at the top of the world there would be the Spaniards followed by the Italians) and, above all, it is one of those problems for which millions of people are willing to spend a lot of money to change their appearance. It is exactly the type of market that modern pharmaceuticals and especially financial markets like. First they invented drugs capable of making you lose weight. Now they are looking for those capable of regrowing. The path, ultimately, is always the same: find a human problem, transform it into a molecule and then transmute the molecule into billions of profits.
And so Wall Street is preparing for the next big bet. We won’t just talk about chips, cloud, algorithms and artificial intelligence. We will talk about follicles. Of receptors. Phase 3. Target price. And especially hair. Because after years of wondering which company would grow the Nasdaq, investors have finally found a more important question: Which company will also grow something on its head?
For the moment, no one knows the answer yet. But one thing is certain. If the bet works, everyone on Wall Street will finally get their hair done again. And those who have turbocharged their purchases today could discover an ancient truth: hair, like securities, is difficult to stop when it starts to fall out.
