Now that the sixty day truce has been implemented between Hezbollah and Israel, for the pro-Iranian Shiite jihadist group it is time to take stock. Hezbollah believes the number of its fighters killed by Israel in the last year of war could be as high as 4,000, according to estimates released this week, as the terror group buries its dead and tries to reorganize its ranks after the agreed suspension of hostilities. with Israel. This is well over 10 times the number killed in the month-long 2006 war against Israel. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) estimated that around 3,000 Hezbollah agents had been wiped out. Around 100 members of other terrorist groups have been killed in Lebanon. Three sources familiar with Hezbollah’s operations told Reuters the group thinks several thousand people have been killed in the 14 months of war since Israel began responding to cross-border fire from the terror group on October 8, 2023. , most of them during the last two months of intensified fighting. As he writes Times of Israel «The sources cited previously undisclosed internal numbers and the estimates far exceed the counts published by the group, but are close to the figure announced by Israel and could provide a window into the extent to which Israel has been able to damage the powerful proxy Iranian, which has largely seen its leadership decapitated and its rocket arsenal significantly reduced, according to authorities.” The figure may also indicate a relatively low toll for non-combatants killed in the fighting, in stark contrast to the high civilian toll claimed in Gaza. According to data published Tuesday by the Lebanese Health Ministry, 3,823 people have been killed in Israeli actions since October 8, 2023, a figure that did not distinguish between civilians and fighters. From October 2023 to September 2024, Hezbollah reported the loss of 521 members killed by Israel during hostilities, predominantly in Lebanon; but also in some operations conducted in Syria, where the group uses a corridor to supply weapons arriving from Iran. After Israel launched a more aggressive military campaign against Hezbollah in late September, the group began updating these numbers.
Hezbollah’s real numbers
Former Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallahkilled in a massive bombing of Beirut on September 27, 2024, had claimed to have an army of 100,000 fighters. However, estimates suggest the actual number is between 25,000 and 50,000. According to the Israeli military, the organization, once considered particularly fearsome, has undergone a drastic reduction in its warfare capabilities: the missile arsenal has been reduced to 20% compared to the past, while the drone fleet stands at 30% compared to to the previous period. In September, Israel aggressively stepped up its retaliatory operations, following nearly a year of almost daily cross-border attacks launched by Hezbollah, which included rockets and drones that displaced some 60,000 Israelis and caused massive economic damage, as well as fears of an invasion similar to the one carried out by Hamas from the Gaza Strip on 7 October 2023. Israeli airstrikes eliminated almost all of the political and military leadership of Hezbollah, setting the stage for a ground invasion that destroyed much of the group’s infrastructure. As the truce comes into force, Hezbollah plans to focus on fully restoring its organizational structure, identifying the security gaps that allowed Israel to inflict such severe blows, and analyzing the past year, including errors linked to the total underestimation of Israeli technological capabilities. According to health authorities in Lebanon, the total casualties caused by the fighting include 717 women and 243 children, most of whom are civilians. In Gaza, where health authorities are under the control of Hamas, officials say more than 44,000 people have died or are believed to have died in combat so far. However, this figure which is false and never verified does not distinguish between civilians and Hamas militants. Israel, for its part, reports having eliminated approximately 18,000 fighters during the conflicts and another 1,000 militants on its territory as of October 7, 2023.
For Lebanon, damages amounting to 8.5 billion dollars. Who will pay?
The Shiite armed group emerges from the conflict deeply shaken, with the leadership still in shock following the killing of its leader Hassan Nasrallah, while many of its supporters find themselves homeless due to the bombings that hit Hezbollah sites in the southern suburbs of Beirut and the devastation of entire villages in southern Lebanon, where the group had positioned itself to attack across the border and fight against the Israeli Ground Forces. More than 1.4 million people – about a quarter of Lebanon’s population – have fled their homes since Hezbollah began hostilities against Israel on October 8, 2023, according to the latest data-based statistics released by the United Nations. of the Lebanese government. The World Bank, in a preliminary assessment, estimated the costs related to damage and losses for Lebanon, which has technically been a failed state for years, at 8.5 billion dollars, a figure that the Government, still grappling with the consequences of the financial collapse of five years ago, it is unable to sustain in any way. In Israel, direct losses from thousands of rocket and drone attacks have been calculated at around $1 billion. The Gulf states – Qatar, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia – contributed $5 billion to Lebanon’s reconstruction in 2006, the last time Hezbollah and Israel went to war. However, there are no signs that these Sunni states are willing to reach out. Iran, which founded and has supported Hezbollah since 1982, has promised to participate in the reconstruction. However, the costs are enormous: the damage to homes in Lebanon alone has been estimated by the World Bank at at least 2.8 billion dollars, with 99,000 cases of homes partially or totally destroyed.
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