The head of German foreign intelligence, Bruno Kahlraised an ominous alarm about the growing risk of a direct military conflict between Russia and NATO by the end of this decade. During a hearing in the Bundestag, Kahl stated that “Moscow’s willingness to use hybrid and covert measures has reached a level never seen before” and that “a direct military confrontation with NATO has become a possibility for the Kremlin”. These words signal the inevitable escalation of tensions between Moscow and the West, with potentially devastating consequences for Europe.
According to Kahl, Russia’s main goal is clear: “divide the West” and weaken Europe’s defense capacitywhile strengthening its military apparatus to prepare for a possible attack. This plan develops on two fronts: on the one hand, Russia seeks to undermine the cohesion of the Western powers; on the other, it aims to “push the United States out of Europe” and restore the NATO borders of the 1990s, creating a new “Russian sphere of influence”. Kahl He stressed that Russia is devoting large sums of money to defense, as has never happened in the past, concentrating its efforts along NATO’s eastern flank. This increase in military spending serves strategic preparation that could culminate in large-scale aggression.
This vision is also shared by the German Defense Minister, Boris Pistorius who, already at the beginning of the year, had raised an alarm about a possible attack by Russia against NATO, hypothesizing that the event could occur within the next five to eight years. Similar concerns were also expressed by Andrius Kubiliuscandidate for the role of first defense commissioner of the European Union, who underlined the need to prepare for a possible escalation within the same period. The statements of Kahl And Pistorius reflect a growing awareness in Europe of the threat posed by Russia, especially after the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Concern for Russia is not limited to the military front alone. Thomas Haldewanghead of the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution, underlined how Russian intelligence is intensifying its espionage and sabotage activities in Germany. “We are observing aggressive behavior on the part of Russian intelligence services”Haldewang said, warning that these attacks are increasing “both quantitatively and qualitatively” and that Russia is even willing to “put lives at risk” in pursuit of its goals.
An example of this growing aggressiveness emerged last summer, when German and US intelligence agencies have foiled a Russian plot to assassinate the CEO of Rheinmetallthe most important German company producing weapons for Ukraine. This plan, which was part of a series of operations aimed at targeting key figures in the European defense industry, was considered one of the most advanced designed by Russia. However, the timely collaboration between the various intelligence agencies prevented the threat from materializing. In any case, this attempted assassination highlights the degree of risk Russia is willing to take to weaken its enemies, not only on the battlefield but also through covert and covert operations.
Despite the difficulties on the battlefield in Ukraine, Putin he doesn’t seem willing to change course. Kahl he made it clear that Russia is still capable of sustaining a prolonged war thanks to the enlistment of new soldiers and reserves of equipment and ammunition. However, Kahl it also highlighted some vulnerabilities in the Russian military, particularly regarding its operational performance.
The head of German intelligence reiterated that the real danger is not only linked to Ukraine, but to Putin’s vision of a “new world order” in which Russia positions itself as the dominant power in Europe. If the West does not support Ukraine in a coordinated and continuous manner, the Kremlin could prevail in its long-term strategy.
In addition to the Russian threat, Kahl warned Germany about growing economic dependence on China, urging the country to reduce trade ties with Beijing. However, he warned that this process will not be able to happen “overnight”, since a too rapid detachment would seriously damage German companies. His invitation, therefore, is to proceed with caution, balancing the need to diversify economic partnerships with the importance of maintaining stable relations with China.
The statements of Bruno Kahl and other German intelligence officials paint a disturbing picture for the future of European security. With an increasingly aggressive Russia ready to test the limits of the West and growing espionage and sabotage activity, Europe faces an unprecedented threat. If there are no adequate preventative measures, the risk of conflict with Russia could become a reality by 2030. In this context, Western unity and continued support for Ukraine will be crucial to maintaining stability and peace on the European continent.
