The tensions between Donald Trump and Giorgia Meloni shake the US-Italy axis: between economy, defense and geopolitics, here’s what’s at stake and why a mending remains possible
Donald Trump’s criticism of Giorgia Meloni represents a notable political earthquake: an earthquake that directly calls into question the relations between the United States and Italy. We are talking about an ancient relationship, which – beyond the contingent issues – rests on solid foundations.
From an economic point of view, in 2025, Italian exports to the USA grew by 3.3%. In particular, our share of exports to Washington is 10.4%: which makes the United States Italy’s second customer country immediately after Germany. Moving on to the geopolitical level, the USA has around 120 military sites in Italy and has 12,000 soldiers deployed on our territory. Two bases, those of Ghedi and Aviano, also host nuclear weapons. Furthermore, the peninsula is strategic, in Washington’s eyes, as regards its Mediterranean policy.
In short, the ties between the two countries are very significant.
It is therefore useful to ask ourselves if and how a mending of relations between Trump and Meloni can take place: a mending that they may both need.
The privileged relationship with the White House has strengthened Palazzo Chigi at a European level both in relation to Brussels and Paris: it will not be a coincidence that the Democratic Party today expresses satisfaction with the rift between the prime minister and the occupant of the White House. Meloni also needs, even without subservience, the relationship with the White House to stem the sirens of those who would like to push her either towards unrealism or towards foreign policy recipes typical of the centre-left (which would mean making oneself prone to Paris and Beijing). On the other hand, Trump had in the Meloni government a fundamental support to slow down the EU’s progressive rapprochement towards China: a rapprochement that, in recent years, has been carried out above all by Emmanuel Macron and Pedro Sánchez.
In all this, the fraying of transatlantic conservatism risks being a gift both to the Democratic Party in the United States and to the PES in the European Union. Which would mean a green light for Wokism and ideological environmentalism, in accordance with the wishes of the Chinese Communist Party, as well as its allies on both sides of the Atlantic.
So let’s try to see where Trump and Meloni could talk to each other again. From a political point of view, a possible success of the diplomatic talks between Washington and Tehran could defuse one of the causes underlying the crisis between the two: namely, the high costs imposed on the Old Continent by the Israeli-American war on Iran.
Another point that could be worked on concerns the Holy See. Given the very recent frictions between Trump and Leo XIV, Meloni could try to carve out a mediation role between the two. After winning the Catholic vote in 2024, the American president knows he needs it in view of the November midterms. Without neglecting that JD Vance and Marco Rubio, both Catholics, will probably compete for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination. All this, while a recent NBC poll has certified the pontiff’s high popularity among US voters. Trump would also need Leo’s support on a geopolitical level, given that the current Pope has (partially) slowed down his predecessor’s policy of rapprochement with the People’s Republic of China.
Finally, as regards the sectors from which the relationship between the American president and our prime minister could restart, just look at the joint declaration between the USA and Italy that the two leaders signed exactly one year ago. On that occasion, both claimed that they wanted to strengthen transatlantic cooperation in the defense sector, adding the need to combat illegal immigration.
There was also talk of the Mattei Plan and the Abraham Accords, as well as the India-Middle East-Europe economic corridor. Without forgetting the collaboration in the energy sector. It was also May last year, when the US Space Force and the Italian Air Force signed a declaration to expand cooperation on space security. «Italy has been a strong and reliable partner in space for decades, with significant contributions to human spaceflight, science and exploration. I expect our partnership with the Italian Space Agency to strengthen further”, stated, among other things, in January, in an exclusive interview with Verità, the director of NASA, Jared Isaacman.
In short, Trump and Meloni would have reasons and opportunities to heal the rift. We don’t know if they will decide to bury the hatchet. However, it is significant that both the American and our local Democrats are betting against their rapprochement.
