The fall of Bashar al Assad This was not good news for China. Beijing had in fact invested heavily in relations with the Baathist regime in Damascus.
In January 2022, Syria joined the Belt and Road Initiativewhile, in the previous March, the Dragon had signed a twenty-five-year cooperation pact with Iran, which was Damascus’s main Middle Eastern ally. It was also September 2023, when Assad he went to China: on this occasion, he had a meeting with the same Xi Jinping and the start of a strategic partnership between Beijing and Damascus was announced. “Facing the unstable and uncertain international situation, China is willing to work together with Syria to firmly support each other and jointly safeguard international fairness and justice,” the Chinese president said. Not only that. In 2020, Beijing also had the opportunity to support Damascus at the UN.
From all this, it is easy to understand how the fall of the Ba’athist regime represents a fairly significant blow to the regional influence exerted by China. A significant setback, especially if you consider the fact that, in March 2023, the People’s Republic managed to mediate a thaw between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Now, Beijing sees growing uncertainty regarding its influence and economic interests in the Middle East. Not only that. China may also have concerns about the indirect weakening of Russia, which was famously one of China’s main international allies Assad.
However, Beijing risks having a further problem in Xinjiang. Second Asia Timesamong the fighters who participated in the offensive led by Mohammed al Jolani in fact, there would be exponents of the Turkestan Islamic Party: it is a group that Beijing has designated as a terrorist organization, while the United States has no longer considered it as such since 2020. Jolani it therefore evidently marks a strengthening of the Turkestan Islamic Party: a factor that China views with concern. Without neglecting the geopolitical unknown of the relations between Beijing and Ankara: let us not forget that the offensive of Jolani it was basically backed by Türkiye. A Türkiye which, together with Qatar, is the real winner emerging from the Syrian crisis.
In short, for Xi the fall of Assad represents an extra problem in a very delicate moment for the People’s Republic of China. Donald Trump he is in fact about to return to the White House and is ready to revive his hard line with Beijing on a large number of dossiers. For the Dragon, this sudden loss of influence in the Middle East is therefore even more problematic.
