The decline in births affects the whole planet: Japan, South Korea, China, but also Europe and Italy, where the fertility rate is at historic lows. By the end of the century the population will decrease drastically, with effects on pensions, work and welfare. Here are the data, causes and possible solutions.
Who will be the last human being on earth? Maybe a woman, females live longer than men. And probably in color, since The birth rate higher in Africa. An old woman who alone wanders for an uninhabited city: beautiful image for a movie or TV series. But it is not said that the fate of humanity will be this. And maybe there will not even be an end for our species, capable of adapting to the most difficult situations. However, what seems certain is that in the future we will be less, many less. Yes, because after wearing us for years with the nightmare of the overpopulation, we now find ourselves facing a completely opposite problem: the demographic winter. We do less and less children and By now many advanced countries are condemned to see their population from getting back. The main engine of demographic winter is the persistent decrease in total fertility rates (TFT), or the average number of children per woman, which are constantly descending below the so -called “replacement level”, conventionally set at about 2.1 children per woman.
Currently two thirds of the world population lives in countries with fertility rates lower than the level of replacement. On a global level, the number of children per woman collapsed from 4.84 in 1950 to 2.23 in 2021, with a projection of 1.59 for the 2100. It is estimated that in that year only in six nations women will have more than 2.1 children on average. The result is that the world population will reach a peak of about 10.3 billion people in the mid -2080s, and then stabilized around 10.2 billion in 2100 and later decrease. In particular, the task of feeding the Earth’s population, in particular the subsaharan region, will be up to Africa, which boasts the highest fertility rate in the world.
The phenomenon of demographic decline is particularly acute in Asia, where it is being occurred with an impressive speed. Japan and South Korea have recorded historic minimums in births in recent years. The forecasts indicate that the Japanese population could decrease by 30 percent by 2070, with the Ultra 65nni which will represent 40 percent of the nation. But it is South Korea that presents the most alarming picture, with a fertility rate of only 0.72 children per woman, the lowest in the world. Also China, despite the abandonment of the policy of the single child, is not immune to this trend: the demographic models of the United Nations show that the Chinese, currently at 1.4 billion, could drop to 1.313 billion by 2050 and under 800 million by 2100. Even India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Iran and Thailand are witnesses. of a marked demographic winter.
The projections indicate a collapse of birth rates in southern Asia, which would rapidly align with those of western Europe. In the United States, fertility has fallen to 1.66 children per woman while in Europe numerous countries, including Poland and Finland, once characterized by high birth rate, are experimenting with similar dynamics. The average in the Union slipped in 2023 to 1.38 children per woman. The projections of the European Commission indicate a decline of the EU population starting from 2026, with the Eastern and Southern European countries that will face the most marked contractions. In Italy the latest Istat report draws a dramatic picture: the fertility rate dropped in 2024 to the historical minimum of 1.18 children per woman while the population has reduced to 58.9 million residents, with forecasts indicating a possible demographic drop of 41 percent by the end of the century. In the meantime, the share of elderly increases: about a quarter of the Italian population (24.7 percent to 1 January 2025) is at least 65 years old. Among these, 4.6 million are 80 -year -old people and more.
Outside the great metropolises, there is a desertification. Alessandro Coppola, urban planner, associate professor at the Polytechnic of Milan and author of the book Apocalypse Town (Laterza publishers), he explains that even in the small and medium cities of Lombardy the population is constantly decreasing, with visible effects on the real estate assets: houses suitable for numerous abandoned families, lost prices and few houses suitable for smaller nuclei. To cause demographic winter in Italy as in the main western countries are several socio-economic and cultural factors. Among the most relevant is the so -called “female empowerment”, which translates into greater access to education and a wider participation in the women’s labor market, combined with the increase in costs associated with the growth and education of children. In our country about half of women in fertile does not even have a child and the average age of mothers at the time of childbirth continues to rise. Foreign residents in Italy also make fewer children. This means that the socio-economic environment of the host country, characterized by high cost of living, difficulties in accessing children’s services, uncertainties of the labor market and smaller families, exercises a decisive influence on reproductive choices, regardless of the cultural background of origin. Consequently, policies targeted exclusively to increase migratory flows to counter demographic drop could only offer temporary relief.
The reduction and aging of the population will have a heavy effect on the world of work. The report of the McKinsey Global Institute Dependency and Depupulation It highlights that the share of people in working age in advanced economies and in China will drop from 67 percent current to 59 percent by 2050. This also implies that employees will be older on average, with possible repercussions on productivity and adaptability to new technologies. Some economists fear that a low fruitfulness, leading to a fewer number of “brains” to work, could “asphyxate innovation” and lead to long -term economic stagnation. Other economists, including Oded Gallo and those of Imperial College London, propose a different vision: smaller birth cohorts could benefit from greater per capita investments in education and human capital, enhancing productivity and innovative ability. In addition, a numerically lower population would guarantee less pressure on natural resources and infrastructures, with possible environmental and economic benefits. In short, two opposite visions. Instead, experts agree on one point: demographic winter will have a negative impact on public spending and pension systems. A more reduced working population involves a more narrow tax base for the collection of taxes, while aging determines an increase in health expenditure.
Furthermore, the combination of a reduced born and greater longevity It implies a smaller number of active workers called to support an increasing number of pensioners. In Italy, the ratio between workers and pensioners will be approached at 1: 1 by 2050, making the systems for distribution (where workers’ contributions pay for pensions) intrinsically unsustainable without profound reforms. In addition to suggesting an increase in retirement age, many reform proposals include the strengthening of supplementary pension and private insurance. However, access and ability to contribute to supplementary funds are often related to income, workplace safety and financial literacy. Therefore, a poorly managed passage could lead to a two -speed welfare system, in which individuals with higher incomes maintain good coverage through private options, while low -income or more vulnerable groups find themselves with a public pension in contraction, thus exacerbating existing inequalities. How to get out of it? Migration is frequently cited as a potential tool to compensate for the decline of the population and the shortcomings of labor. But it will not be a panacea, the simple welcome of a greater number of immigrants is insufficient; Attention will have to focus on who arrives, what skills brings with it and how it is integrated into the company and in the labor market to guarantee a mutual benefit. In addition, an inadequate management of immigration can generate social tensions.
So the only solution is to start reforms to support birth and family and to make the welfare systems sustainable for the future. The International Monetary Fund recommends to introduce generous parental leave and subsidized nursery schools (on the Nordic model) and to invest in technology and automation (as in Japan). The OECD recommends reforms to ensure the adequacy and sustainability of pension systems, with incentives for elderly workers. But it remains a problem to be solved: where to find all this money while public spending increases? A nice rebus.
