While the spotlight is on the mineral resources of the Arctic, and with the elimination of supplies from Russia, commercial relations between Italy and the nations of Central Asia are intensifying. Real treasure chests full of metals, oil and above all methane. The price of which is exploding due to the cold and speculation.
While the international spotlight is on the battle for control of the Arctic and the exploitation of its mineral resources, a silent game is taking place in the heart of Eurasia that will decide the energy destinies of the coming decades. Central Asia, no longer being Russia’s “backyard” even if it is still at the center of Moscow’s commercial and political interests, has become a strategic area for the immense and still largely unexplored gas deposits, as well as rare minerals. Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan (the so-called Stans) and Azerbaijan are a real energy treasure chest.
It is no coincidence that Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, at the end of the recent mission to Japan and South Korea, before returning to Italy, stopped in Tashkent, the capital of Uzbekistan, where she was received by President Shavkat Mirziyoyev. A meeting that demonstrated the growing importance of relations with this country.
Italy and Europe, orphans of Russian gas and struggling with the energy transition, are looking at Central Asia with interest, even if the geopolitical context is characterized by the growing presence of China and Russia’s attempt to maintain its ability to influence. For Rome, becoming the terminal of the major Asian gas pipelines is vital, not being able to count on nuclear power and having to contend with the hostility of local communities to extraction operations or the presence of regasifiers for liquid gas (LNG). See, for example, the case of Piombino, with the protests against the plant moored in the port, considered by the government and businesses to be a structural piece of the country’s energy strategy.
And meanwhile the price of gas continues to rise. In the second week of January it increased by 30 percent. The forecast of a snowstorm in the United States and the risk of a brake on the production and therefore exports of LNG were enough to send the markets into fibrillation. If inventories fall below average (in Europe levels reached 52 percent in January), wholesale prices rise due to fear of shortages. With 45 percent of total LNG imports, the United States was the EU’s main supplier of liquid gas in 2024.
This is enough to make us understand the extreme volatility of the market and how Europe, and especially Italy, are like earthenware pots. It should be remembered that gas is mainly used for the production of electricity, domestic heating and industrial processes. Diversifying supply channels is vital. Our country depends on 95 percent of this energy source from abroad, while domestic production covers less than 5 percent of its needs.
Until 2021, Russia was Italy’s main supplier, accounting for more than 40 percent of total imports. The gas arrived via the Tag gas pipeline (Trans Austria Gas Pipeline), which passed through Ukraine and Austria. After the invasion of Ukraine, Rome progressively reduced its dependence on Moscow and now the Russian share is almost zero, replaced by supplies from Algeria (over 35 percent of total imports), Northern Europe, in particular Norway (around 10 percent of the requirement), Libya (5 percent), while LNG comes from various countries, including Qatar, the United States, Nigeria and Angola, and represents around 20 percent of the total imports. In recent years, the Italian government has adopted a long-term strategy to diversify supply sources with bilateral agreements with Algeria, Azerbaijan and Qatar which have made Italy an energy hub for Southern Europe.
The most strategic challenge for us and the EU is being played out on the Central Asian chessboard. And here the most valuable piece but the most difficult to move is Turkmenistan. The country is literally suspended on an ocean of methane which represents the fourth largest reserve in the world. The Galkynysh field is the second largest on the planet after that of South Pars, between Iran and Qatar. It contains over 26 trillion cubic meters of gas. Currently most of the extraction ends up in China but, to diversify, Turkmenistan is pushing the Tapi project, a 1,814 kilometer pipeline intended to connect the rich deposits to Pakistan and India via Afghanistan.
It is one of the most ambitious, but also most dangerous infrastructures in the world. The goal for this year is to complete the key section on the border with Afghanistan but the political instability of this country is the main obstacle to convincing international investors. The issue that directly interests Italy and the EU is the Trans-Caspian corridor. For years, Russia and Iran have blocked construction of a gas pipeline under the Caspian Sea, citing environmental reasons.
The turning point came with the cooperation agreement between Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan for the exploitation of the “Dostluk” field. Turkey is playing a mediator role to connect Turkmen gas to Azeri pipes that already arrive in Italy via TAP. An increase in the pipeline’s capacity is planned for this year, and Turkmenistan gas is the leading candidate.
Kazakhstan is no less strategic. From a mere exporter it has transformed into a logistics hub. By doubling volumes along the “Middle Corridor”, Astana aims to connect the Caspian fields to European markets by bypassing Russian sanctions and infrastructure.
Italy, through the ports of Trieste and Venice and the agreements with the Turkish railways, is becoming recognized as the natural terminal of this new Silk Road. Uzbekistan, among the world’s leading gas producers (the government is encouraging extraction activity by opening new wells), has one of its main Western partners in Rome. Ansaldo Energia has signed agreements for the modernization of power plants and is collaborating with the Uzatom atomic agency for the development of new generation small nuclear reactors in order to reduce dependence on gas. Maire Tecnimont and Saipem are engaged in the construction of chemical and gas treatment plants.
Italy has positioned itself as a technology supplier starting with the modernization of obsolete plants that lose up to 30 percent of their contents during transport.
In Tajikistan, methane reserves are largely unexploited. It is estimated that the Bokhtar basin may contain huge reserves of gas and oil. The government is trying to speed up drilling also by using international partners such as the Chinese CNPC. But the country is above all the transit of the Line D gas pipeline that connects Central Asia to China and which gives the nation a position of geopolitical strength. Our interest in Tajikistan is in hydroelectric engineering, where we are world leaders. The Italian giant Webuild is participating in the construction of the Rogun Dam, the highest in the world (335 metres), which will make the country the electricity hub of Central Asia.
Finally, Azerbaijan which has a close relationship with Italy as the largest supplier of oil and one of the most reliable for gas. In 2025, Rome absorbed almost 38 percent of the methane produced in the country. Since January 1st, the capacity of the TAP gas pipeline arriving in Puglia has increased by 1.2 billion cubic meters per year, bringing the initial flow to approximately 11.2 billion. This first upgrade aims to strengthen European energy security and the prospect is to double the flow rate up to 20 billion cubic meters by 2027.
Italy is seen as a strategic partner because it offers high technology. Ansaldo works on the modernization of the Azerbaijani electricity grid, while Snam holds 20 percent of the Tap consortium. Azerbaijan is the key mediator to unblock Turkmenistan’s gas which would remain blocked without Azerbaijani infrastructure. On this large chessboard the game has already begun and the kick-off, as always, was given by China. It is up to Europe to make up for lost time.
