High inflation, falling currencies and sanctions are worsening Iran’s economic crisis and fueling protests. China curbs support for Tehran while Washington increases pressure and **Donald Trump invites Iranians to “keep protesting”, promising that “help is on the way”.
While street demonstrations continue to shake the country and deaths increase every hour, theIran must deal with an increasingly profound economic crisis that erodes consensus and resources. Inflation above 40%, rial in free fallhigh youth unemployment and purchasing power reduced to historic lows are putting the healthcare system under stress Islamic Republic. In this context, the attitude of Chinaconsidered for years the Tehran’s main strategic partnerappears much more cautious than expected. The alliance that had alarmed the United States and Middle Eastern countries today shows clear limits, both on a political and economic level. International pressure began to increase again after the president’s statements Donald Trumpwhich has announced plans to impose an additional 25% tariff on countries that maintain trade with Iran. The methods of application have not been clarified, but the threat risks undermining the fragile trade détente built in recent months between Washington And Beijingsealed by the meeting with the leader Xi Jinping. Beijing reacted by rejecting the idea of new sanctions, reiterating its opposition to unilateral measures and claiming the right to protect its economic interests. But, beyond the official declarations, the Chinese line remains marked by caution. When asked about the news of thousands of victims in the repression of the Iranian protests, Beijing’s diplomacy limited itself to expressing the hope that Tehran manages to overcome difficulties and preserve internal stability, avoiding clearer stances.
This prudence recalls the attitude maintained by China also towards the Venezuela before the US operation that led to the capture of Nicolás Maduro. In both cases, Beijing it preferred not to expose itself beyond a certain threshold, while remaining a central economic player. There China it is in fact Iran’s main trading partner and absorbs around 90% of its oil exports. To circumvent sanctions, Iranian crude often travels through complex ship-to-ship transfer operations and is paid for with alternative financial mechanisms, mainly linked to infrastructure projects, as reported by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) According to market estimates, about 12% of the oil imported by China last year came from Iran, a significant but not irreplaceable share for Chinese refineries. Official trade numbers show an asymmetric relationship. In the 2024 China has exported toIran assets worth 8.9 billion dollarswhile imports from Tehran they stopped at 4.4 billionincluding minerals, copper and chemicals. A modest figure compared to China’s approximately $6 trillion in global trade. For Tehran, however, these flows are vital: the Iranian economy, strangled by sanctions, is experiencing anemic growth, a chronic budget deficit and an increase in poverty which, according to independent estimates, now involves over a third of the population.
“For Beijing, Iran is not a strategic goal in itself, but a tool to guarantee energy and presence in the Middle East,” he explained to the WSJ Ja Ianteacher at National University of Singapore. «For Tehran, however, China represents a sort of lifeline in the sea of sanctions». An anchor which, however, is not enough to stabilize the country: the economic difficulties have fueled widespread protests, considered by many observers to be the most serious challenge faced by the Iranian political system in its 47 years of existence. Iran And China they are part, together with Russia And North Korea, of an informal axis that some Western officials call “Crink”, united more by opposition to the United States than by real strategic integration. Beijing he argued Fly on an economic and industrial level, while Tehran supplied drones and ammunition to Russia in the war in Ukraine. However, when Israel And United States hit Iranian targets last year, allies offered limited support, fearful of exposing banks and large companies to Western sanctions. The economic cooperation agreement signed in 2021, which provided for Chinese investment up to $400 billion in exchange for oil at discounted prices remained largely on paper. Joint military exercises and multilateral forums have contributed to alleviating Iran’s diplomatic isolation, but have not resolved the central issue: an economy in structural crisis, incapable of guaranteeing well-being and stability. And it is precisely on this terrain, rather than on a geopolitical level, that the stability of the government is being played out today Tehran. Finally, The President of the United States Donald Trump called on the Iranian people, who are currently demonstrating against the Ayatollahs’ regime, to
“continue to protest” and promised that “help is on the way.” Trump wrote on his platform Truth Social:
«Iranian patriots, KEEP PROTESTING – TAKE CONTROL OF YOUR INSTITUTIONS!!! Save the names of the murderers and attackers. They will pay a very high price. I have canceled all meetings with Iranian officials until the senseless killing of protesters stops. HELP IS COMING. MIGA!!! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP.”
