The commercial war begins. Today the Chinese duties are caught on $ 14 millionths of goods imported from the United States, as a response to additional taxes of 10% wanted by President Trump on the products arriving from Beijing. And the White House has already made a second move: new duties: 25% on steel and aluminum. Maximum attention also in Europe (and in Italy), where they don’t just worry stars and stripes duties. The Cbam (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism), the new European mechanism that will become fully operational from 2026 and will make the import prices of these materials, And the German crisis is also worried. According to Mestre’s Cgia, the effects of the weakness of the European locomotive could damage more than Washington’s tariff policies.
On board the IR Force One Trump, going to the Super Bowl, he announced 25% rates on all steel and aluminum imports, crucial for the automotive and building industry. And it doesn’t end here. The Trump administration is ready to apply a policy of mutual duties; Therefore, further rates on imports from countries that apply them in turn to American products. “Mutual rates, probably Tuesday or Wednesday,” said the president clearly. Canada is currently the main supplier of steel and aluminum for the United States, followed by Brazil, Mexico, South Korea and Vietnam according to Morgan Stanley, over 80% of the US aluminum requirement depends on import.
The announcement came shortly before shooting “of the time x”. No agreement for now between Beijing and Washington and no “frozen” duties as in the case of Mexico and Canada and so today Chinese duties on American products come into force. Beijing will apply taxes from 10% to 15% on coal, liquefied natural gas, crude oil, large agricultural machinery and cars. It is the response to additional taxes of 10% wanted by the President of the United States a few weeks ago. In addition to the duties, China has announced new restrictions on the export of strategic minerals such as Tungsten and Tellurio and has started an antitrust investigation on Google, accusing the tech giant of violating the Chinese law.
Estimates and analysis on the commercial war alert Europe where another element also looms, Which will have strong repercussions on the steel and aluminum market: the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. The measure, wanted by Brussels to limit the import of high -intensity carbon products, is from 2023 in the transitory phase, but will become definitive in 2026. European importers of steel, aluminum, fertilizers and concrete will have to provide precise details on the amount of CO2 of the products, with an inevitable increase in bureaucracy and costs. According to Assofermet estimates, the association of metal import companies, the CBAM could determine an increase in steel prices of 15%.
Then there is Germany, to alarm. According to an analysis of the Cgia of Mestre, the main concern for Italian exports are currently not the new American duties, but the German economic crisis. In the two-year period 2023-2024, the drop in demand from Germany generated a loss of 5.8 billion euros for Italian companies. Only in the first ten months of 2024, the collapse of exports to Berlin was 3.1 billion euros, hitting sectors such as mechanics and automotive hard. On the contrary, the United States represented a growing market for Italian companies, with a record export of 67.2 billion euros in 2023. However, with the new rates imposed by Trump, the risk of a contraction is concrete: second The OECD, 10% duties could reduce Italian exports in the USA of 3.5 billion euros, while rates at 20% could lead to losses up to 12 billion.
