The dramatic electoral defeat of Kamala Harris it was not only due to the numerous errors committed by the Democratic candidate. The structural causes of that debacle actually come from afar. And they have one main person responsible: Barack Obama. Despite not holding formal positions in the Democratic Party, it is known that the former president continues to be one of the most influential figures in its ruling class. Well, he himself contributed decisively to creating the conditions of the crisis into which the Asinello fell.
To understand this, however, we must take a step back. When he emerged as a presidential candidate in 2008, Obama he was an anti-establishment figure: defeated Hillary Clinton in the Dem primaries that year and the Republican John McCain to the presidential elections. He was, in other words, an alternative candidate to the system and very close to the blue collar workers of the Rust Beltthe area of the country with industrial tradition, hit hard by the crisis. Then something happened. Having won his party’s presidential nomination, he made peace with the power he had originally fought against. During the hard-fought Dem primaries of 2016, he gave his support to the Clintondisappointing all that part of the American left that supported, on the contrary, the anti-system candidacy of Bernie Sanders. Not only that. For the former first lady, Obama he also fell out with his deputy, Joe Bidenwho in 2015 hinted that he wanted to compete for the nomination the following year. The defeat of Clinton it did not excessively affect the power of Obama in the party. So much so that it resurfaced four years later.
The 2020 Dem primaries were very crowded. And, instead of allowing the development of an internal dialectic capable of renewing the ruling class, Obama intervened again from above. As reported at the time by NBC Newsthe former president moved behind the scenes to push the various candidates to withdraw and support a Biden who had made a terrible start, losing for example in the New Hampshire primaries. The support guaranteed by Obama to Biden it was not due to friendship or admiration: as mentioned, the two do not love each other and, indeed, Biden as vice president he was often kept in a corner by the number one in the White House. No: the objective was, once again, to block the electoral rise of Sanders. In the end Biden he won the nomination and then the presidency, ensuring, also by virtue of his weak leadership, an effective division of tasks in his administration among the allies of Obama (as Lloyd Austin or Janet Yellen) and those of Clinton (as Jake Sullivan).
And here we come to the crux. Not only did Asinello continue to remain under the heel of an establishment that prevented an internal dialectic. But Obama miscalculated. His scheme was to transform Biden in a transitional president: who would have had to give up his re-nomination in the summer of 2023 to be replaced by a stronger personality the following year. And here’s the unexpected: Bidenpushed by his wife Jill and by his son under investigation Huntersuddenly refused to withdraw from the race for reappointment. The choice shocked and irritated Obama who, while officially professing loyalty to the former deputy, asked the members of his historical entourage, starting from David Axelrodto shoot chained balls at him. Bidenwithout serious rivals in the field, meanwhile won the 2024 Dem primaries, albeit in increasingly precarious psychophysical conditions. The turning point came last May, when the president’s campaign director, Jen O’Malley Dillonopened de facto to a televised debate between its candidate and Donald Trump: a somewhat strange position, given the health situation – especially mental – of Biden. It may be a coincidence, but the O’Malley Dillon has a political history behind it that is largely linked to Obama.
And so we arrive at the televised confrontation with Trump on June 27th CNN. Biden it collapsed. And, at that point, the party establishment openly turned against him. The president tried to resist but, under pressure from Obama And Nancy Pelosisurrendered at the end of July. Obama he achieved his goal. Too late, though. The elections were just three months away. And the rising stars of the Democratic Party – Gavin Newsom, Josh Shapiro And Gretchen Whitmer – they didn’t want to risk sacrificing themselves: it was better for them to wait until 2028. Therefore only the Harris to which Bidencoldly, gave the endorsement on the very day of his step back. Obama he knew she was a weak candidate, he would have preferred Newsom. But, as mentioned, the latter and the other possible contenders backed out. The former president then waited before taking sides. And without unblocking the situation, despite this he gave his endorsement to the vice-president, putting his face to it and intervening in an electoral campaign which, all things considered, Harris it did more harm than good: just remember when, a few weeks before the vote, the former president irritated the African-American male electorate, accusing him of sexism for his lack of enthusiasm towards the Democratic candidate. Also Shapiro and the Whitmeralthough officially supporting it, had no real interest in a victory for the Harris because, in such a scenario, their presidential ambitions for 2028 would have been compromised.
Obamain other words, was a victim of the infernal mechanism that he triggered. His Machiavellianism backfired on him. It prevented a healthy internal discussion to renew the Democratic ruling class. Over the past decade, he has systematically sacrificed the working-class wing of the party to the liberal wing of the West Coast. Finally, he implemented an internal coup that produced a boomerang effect.
Oh yes, because, after the defeat of the Harrisrags started flying. Sanders accused the Democratic Party of having “abandoned” the working class. Furthermore, various dem deputies, such as Tom Suozzithey acknowledged that woke extremism contributed to Asinello losing the election. It is clear that these criticisms have a precise target: Obama. The former president knows well that he has ended up in the dock. And to blame Biden from the debacle he then sent forward someone who wrote his speeches: Jon Favreau. «The decision of Joe Biden to run for president again was a catastrophic mistake,” he thundered Favreau after the elections. This is a thesis which, also supported by Pelosiis leaky and unlikely to be accepted without batting an eyelid by the Democratic Party both at a parliamentary and electoral base level. Obama he now sees his internal power wavering, while Newsom, Shapiro and the Whitmer they are already warming up their engines to run for the 2028 presidential nomination.
It will be necessary to understand whether these emerging leaders will accept to become pawns of the current Democratic establishment or whether they will have the strength to definitively archive those names which, starting from Obama and from Clintonled their party to defeat. Shapiro and the Whitmergovernors of Pennsylvania and Michigan respectively, could be at an advantage, as they represent the Rust Belt from which the Donkey should start again. These are therefore profiles that, at least on paper, could be capable of recovering a political dialogue with the blue-collar workers of that area. For its part, Newsom he is, yes, governor of a liberal state like California, but it is equally true that, in some cases, he has demonstrated a fair amount of pragmatism. All three would therefore have what it takes to renew the old establishment and, at the same time, bring the Democrats out of the woke drunkenness by which they have been crushed. However, it is not certain that they will prove capable of effectively managing the most ideological wing of the party, nor that they will have the courage to go against the Clinton And Obama.
The battles of the liberal group are increasingly irreconcilable with the interests of the working class (just think of the asphyxiated green policies). And this is a huge problem for Asinello’s future, given that, in the last elections, he lost in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin: three states that, although with difficulty, Biden he managed to regain four years ago. Without neglecting that, in progressive California, Trump this November it gained four percentage points compared to 2020. It is an all the more striking result given that California, in addition to being the epicenter of woke ideology, is also the home state of Harris. In short, the crossing in the dem desert will be very long. Either they manage to bring the working class closer together, or their decline risks worsening dangerously.
