Egyptian President Fattah al Sisi is worried about the Syrian crisis. “Their mission in Syria is over and the next objective is to overthrow the Egyptian state,” he declared a few days ago, without going into detail. “In their strategy, they must break the cohesion of the state and the Egyptians, break the unity between Muslims and Christians,” he continued. “We will not hesitate to protect our people and safeguard Egypt’s national security,” he concluded. Although he did not mention it explicitly, it is clear that the Egyptian leader was referring to the Muslim Brotherhood: an organization of which he is historically a bitter enemy.
That same Muslim Brotherhood that rejoiced at Mohammed al Jolani’s rise to power in Damascus. On the other hand, it is no mystery that the latter managed to victoriously conduct his offensive against the Ba’athist regime of Bashar al Assad thanks to the support of Turkey and Qatar: the two main supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood. For al Sisi, the one who looms on the horizon is something of a nightmare. In fact, let us remember that, in 2013, it was he who carried out the coup that deposed Mohammed Morsi: the Egyptian president who, the year before, had come to power as an expression of the Muslim Brotherhood itself. Furthermore, the current Egyptian leader fears enormously the dynamics that led to the so-called “Arab Spring” of 2011. From this point of view, in his eyes, al Jolani’s victory represents a significant alarm bell. It is a overall situation which represents an unknown for the future of relations between al Sisi and Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Starting last February, the two leaders had begun to get closer. Not only that. They also had a meeting in the second half of December, i.e. after the fall of Assad.
The question that arises is therefore the following: will they continue on the path of détente? Or will what happened in Syria make their relations more problematic? For the moment, it is not known. However, the Egyptian leader’s words, implicitly addressed to the Muslim Brotherhood, portend some turbulence. Among other things, on December 29, Sisi made it known that he was “closely following the agreement recently reached between Ethiopia and Somalia through Turkish mediation”. A way, probably, to not leave Ankara with a totally free hand in the Horn of Africa. In short, it cannot be excluded that, after the change of regime in Damascus, relations between Egypt and Turkey will become increasingly more articulated and complex. On the one hand, they could continue to strengthen their relationships. On the other hand, it is likely that al Sisi’s distrust could increase. From this point of view, it cannot be ruled out that the Egyptian leader is betting a lot on Donald Trump’s return to the White House. That Trump who, during his first term, took a particularly severe line towards the Muslim Brotherhood.
