The conflict in the Middle East confirms what had already emerged in Ukraine: remotely controlled, cheap and numerous aircraft are essential in modern wars. The ones we produce are sophisticated but very expensive. It is urgent to remedy this.
What would happen if a European country was hit by a swarm of kamikaze drones? Small unmanned aircraft that target airports, power plants, radar stations, railway hubs, and knock them out with a series of targeted explosions. The attacker would spend a few tens of thousands of euros for each drone, while the affected country would be forced to react by launching interceptors costing hundreds of thousands, if not millions of euros each.
In the space of a few hours the toll would not only be measured in material damage, but in a cost-benefit ratio that would lean dangerously on the side of those who attack. The wars in Ukraine and in Middle East have already shown how concrete this asymmetry is. Small low-cost drones manage to destroy infrastructures worth millions, forcing those who defend themselves to consume missile stocks accumulated over years in just a few days and jeopardizing the “depth” of military warehouses.
The new grammar of asymmetric conflicts
It is the new grammar of conflicts: those who can afford to lose hundreds of drones worth a few thousand euros risk wearing out those who have to defend the skies and infrastructures with arsenals that are much more expensive and slow to reconstitute. In Ukraine the battlefield has become an open-air laboratory. Ukrainians have turned racing drones and commercial quadcopters into weapons Fpv«first person view», drones piloted while looking live at the on-board camera. These are 400-500 euro platforms capable of hitting tanks, artillery emplacements, and logistics vehicles worth millions of euros.
Next to the Fpv “circuiting munitions” have become popular: kamikaze drones that can remain in flight over an area of operations for several minutes, or even hours, waiting for the right target, and then dive and explode. They are no longer simple bullets, but intelligent weapons: if the target disappears, the operator can change the target or cancel the attack until the last second. In the case of theIran the message is similar, but the philosophy is different. Tehran focused on kamikaze drones Shahedrelatively simple means, driven mainly by GPS and inertial systems, which fly to pre-programmed coordinates.
Europe’s delay and the Euiss report
When theIran and its allies have launched hundreds of drones and missiles at targets in Middle Eastthe countries called to defend themselves intercepted them, but they burned an impressive number of high-end anti-aircraft missiles. It is in this context that United States, China, Taiwan, Israel and of course Ukraineare investing heavily in attack drones. Not only in large unmanned aircraft, but above all in low-cost “disposable” platforms, capable of saturating defenses.
THE’Europe it is not stopped, but it arrives late. A report fromEu Institute for security studies underlines that the armies of the Old Continent have few armed drones and almost no mass of “disposable” ammunition comparable to that of Russia or Ukraine. In many cases the armed forces of member countries have focused on a few high-end systems, suitable for the fight against terrorism or surveillance missions, rather than for withstanding a conflict of attrition against swarms of kamikaze drones.
Leonardo and the challenge of national production
THE’Italy play a particular game. On the one hand there is Leonardothe national champion of aerospace and defense: strong in surveillance drones such as Falcon Xplorer And Falcon Evoin the mini tactical reconnaissance drones carried in the backpack by soldiers, and among the protagonists of the program Eurodrone. However, the heart of its business remains high technology: sensors, radars, command and control systems and high-end anti-drone solutions. On the front of low-cost killer drones, Leonardo it is present more through alliances than with its own products.
The US road passes through Leonardo Drswhich integrates and markets circuit ammunition Hero developed by Israel Uvision. Next to Leonardo there is Rwm Italysubsidiary of Rheinmetallwhich in Sardinia produces, among other things, family ammunition Hero for the European market. The challenge, however, remains the pace: if an aggressor decided to hit European infrastructures with swarms of low-cost drones, the continent today would have neither the supplies nor the rapid replacement capacity needed to survive for long. The risk is to repeat, in drones, the history of the car: we are very good at building the “Bmw of drones”, but if we don’t learn to also make the “people’s cars” we will end up defending theEurope with unique pieces, while the others will attack it in series.
