François Heisbourg, in his essay A world without America (“A World Without America”), reflects on a future in which the United States will progressively reduce its commitment and attention towards Europe, regardless of the outcome of the next American presidential elections. Heisbourg is not just any observer. Born in 1949, a long-time French diplomat, son of a Luxembourg historian, the essayist in his life was also president of the IISS in London, the sancta sanctorum of Atlantic strategic thought. His is the point of view of a “cold warrior”, that is, a figure formed in the First Cold War and used to thinking as a European under the stars and stripes defensive umbrella. In describing the future, here and there a certain anxiety about the unknown shines through, which however does not obscure the clarity of the analysis.
To fully understand Heisbourg’s analysis, it is useful to look at the historical context of transatlantic relations. After World War II, the United States established itself as Western Europe’s principal ally and protector, playing a crucial role in the creation of NATO and in the defense of the West during the Cold War. With the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, it seemed that the partnership between Europe and America would continue uninterrupted, even in a post-bipolar world. However, since the 2000s, there have been signs of a certain American disengagement from Europe. Successive administrations, starting with that of George W. Bush, have progressively shifted their geopolitical focus towards other areas of the world, particularly the Middle East and Asia, reflecting a reorganization of the United States’ global priorities.
Heisbourg argues that this tendency towards disengagement is not a contingent phenomenon, but represents a change in the way the United States sees its role in the world. His thesis is that America, regardless of who is in power, will be less focused on Europe. The factors indicated by Heisbourg are three:
1. The rebalancing towards Asia. China’s growing power and increasingly assertive role on the global stage have forced Washington to increasingly concentrate its economic, military and diplomatic resources in the Asia-Pacific region. This “pivot” towards Asia was formalized during the Obama administration, but remained a constant even under Donald Trump and Joe Biden. The competition with China is not only economic but also ideological and military, and the United States sees this challenge as the number one priority going forward.
2. The Old Continent in evolution. Heisbourg argues that Europe itself is going through a phase of redefining its international role. Brexit marked a turning point, dividing the continent which is already struggling to find a common political and strategic vision. The internal tensions between EU countries, the economic differences and the different visions on the role of NATO contribute to making Europe less cohesive and therefore less relevant in the eyes of Washington.
3. American military and political disengagement. Finally, Heisbourg observes that, under both Republican and Democratic administrations, the US has progressively reduced its military presence in the Old Continent. This disengagement occurred not only on a symbolic level, with the reduction of American troops on European soil, but also in terms of less involvement in European security issues. For example, during the 2014 Ukraine crisis, although Washington provided support, much of the diplomatic response was driven by Europe itself.
With this triple premise, for Heisbourg Europe must prepare to face a world in which the American protective umbrella will no longer be taken for granted. This will require a major rethink in security. If, in fact, NATO remains the main instrument of collective defense, the Old Continent can no longer depend exclusively on the United States for its protection. Looking to the future, Heisbourg is not pessimistic about the fate of the EU, but calls on European leaders to recognize the new geopolitical reality. The European Union, according to the essayist, has the potential to emerge as an independent global actor, but to do so it must overcome internal divisions and strengthen its defensive capabilities. One of the key steps will be to build a more integrated defense industry, capable of supporting a common military force. This requires cooperation between Member States and significant investments in research, development and production of advanced military technologies. Heisbourg underlines that, without an autonomous defense capability, Europe risks remaining vulnerable not only to external threats, but also to geopolitical pressures exerted by other powers, such as China and Russia.
