We are paying more than double for extra virgin olive oil compared to three years ago. The price has exceeded the threshold of 9 euros per litre. On average, according to an analysis by Altroconsumo, there was an increase of 32% compared to 2023, 88% compared to 2022 and 112% compared to 2021. Not only that, even in discount stores, once a haven for saving , there have been increases of up to 80%.
The record increases are the result of a combination of structural and cyclical factors. Climate change plays a crucial role: drought and extreme climate events have drastically reduced harvests in Italy and in the main producing countries, such as Spain and Greece. Italy, historically not self-sufficient in the production of olive oil, has seen its dependence on imports increase.
Even on the international front, the global market suffers from a shortage of supply. In Spain, the world’s leading producer, production was decimated by an adverse climatic year. This generated a domino effect, pushing up the prices not only of Italian oil, but also of imported oil. The growing demand for quality oil is also having an impact. Manufacturers, driven by the need to maintain competitive margins, focus on high-end products, reducing economic options.
According to the Altroconsumo survey on twenty extra virgin olive oils between March and November 2024 shows generalized increases ranging from 1% to 12%. And compared to 2021, prices increased by 112%, with increases that mainly affected the cheaper products. Oils that three years ago cost less than 6 euros per liter today exceed 9 euros, recording increases of more than 80%. On the contrary, high-end oils, already over 7 euros per litre, have seen lower price increases, less than 65%. Today, therefore, the choice for consumers has been reduced: prices are much more homogeneous, penalizing those looking for cheaper solutions. And promotions, once an ally of savings, currently offer minimal benefits. If in 2021 the average discount was 30%, in 2024 it was reduced to 15%.
Predictions for 2025 are mixed. The first data indicate a possible recovery in production in the main producing countries, such as Spain, Greece and Tunisia. This could ease the pressure on prices, bringing them back to more accessible levels. However, in Italy projections for 2024-2025 indicate a new production contraction due to drought. The Bel Paese will therefore continue to rely on imports, but this will not be enough to bring prices back to pre-2021 levels. Experts agree that the average cost could stabilize around the current 8-9 euros per litre, without significant reductions.
