The abandonment of the Green follies and the mini-euro are fruitful. The SME index on the industrial production of the euro area returns positive, recording 50.7 points in March, compared to the 48.9 points of February. The 50 -point threshold is discriminant: above indicates a healthy economy, under signals slowdown, if not even recession. With this result, the Eurozone has been reaching the maximums for almost three years, according to Standard & Poor’s Global. To tow the convoy is the German industry, where the index, while still remaining in the gray area, has risen to 48.3 points, marking the highest level of the last 31 months.
“With the beginning of spring we could see the first sprouts of a rebirth of the manufacturing”, comments Cyrus de la Rubia, head of the Hamburg Commercial Bank. “The European industrial system has recorded an expansion of production for the first time from March 2023”. Male, however, France, stopped at 47. In February it was at 45, so also in this case there are signs of recovery.
“Enthusiasm could be slowed down by the thought that the improvement recorded by the manufacturing is only a temporary factor due to the wave of imports from the United States, caused by the fear of customs duties,” he warns. In practice, the March leap could be followed by a specular contraction when the commercial blocks come into force.
“Yet, considering the intention of Europe to make enormous investments in the defense and infrastructures (Germany approved only last week an equivalent historical tax package), the hope of a longer lasting recovery seems well founded”.
In the meantime, the development of prices in the tertiary sector, which is under close observation of the ECB, “will be good news for the ‘doves’ of monetary policies. Both the sale and purchase have slowed down the upward tendency of the previous months”, continues the economist.
Finally, it should be taken into account that, compared to the beginning of 2023, Germany’s industrial production collapsed by about 8%, and that therefore “has potentially much to recover”.
