One of the most ambitious industrial projects on the continent is opening up on Europe’s tracks. The protagonists are the state giants who have learned to think like multinationals: the group State Railwaysthe French one SNCFthe British-Belgian Eurostarthe Deutsche Bahn German and Spanish Renfe. The stakes are very high: millions of passengers, billions of euros, and the possibility of subtracting significant shares from air traffic on medium-range routes. A bit like what happened at Linate-Fiumicinoonce one of the richest connections in Europe and today residual.
The first to move the pieces was the Italian player. The goal of State Railways is to bring i Frecciarossa up to London, challenging Eurostarthe company that has always dominated the most profitable and symbolic European high-speed connection. But the expansionary strategy of FS it is much more complex than a passage under the Channel.
The Metro of Europe runs towards Berlin
By the end of 2026, a Frecciarossa directed to Munich, the first of a series of new connections between Italy and Germany on the high-speed line. From 2028, connections will be extended south towards Naples and north towards Berlin. “In Italy we call it, as a joke, the European metro,” he declared Stefano DonnarummaCEO of the group FSin an interview with the German newspaper Handelsblatt. «We could propose ourselves as leaders in the realization of such a project».
This year the group returned to profit by 30 million and expansion abroad occupies a prominent place in its industrial plan. The German plan is anything but timid: the hypothesis is that the company will enter long-distance rail transport in Germany with 50 high-speed trains High Speed. It would be a historic leap.
The land, after all, is already plowed. In Spain, FS operates through the consortium Iryowith 20 Frecciarossa 1000 which ensure 65 daily connections between 11 cities. Since the launch of the service in November 2022, Iryo it carried over 17.5 million passengers, gaining a 25% market share. In France, the group is active as Trenitalia France on the Paris-Lyon and Paris-Marseille routes, as well as on the historic Paris-Milan.
The siege of the Tunnel and the Parisian workshop
The real jewel that everyone wants, however, remains the Channel Tunnel. Trenitalia is investing a billion euros to modify its Frecciarossa and be ready when the conditions to compete arise. The idea is to bring the first train by 2029. The road, however, turned out to be bumpier than expected. Trenitalia UK attempted to enter the London-Paris high-speed route, but the British Transport Authority granted the space in the railway depots, essential to operate on the route, to Virgin Trains of the volcanic Richard Branson.
A hard blow, but not decisive. The game is still open. The FS Group is looking for an area in the Paris area to build a new maintenance workshop, with an investment of up to 100 million euros. This structure will serve both for the already active connections between Paris and Marseille (via Lyon), and for future cross-Channel services between Paris and London.
Alongside FS he took sides Certaresan American investment fund active in the travel sector. According to unofficial estimates, Certares it should invest around 200 million, while the overall commitment would reach one billion, also intended for the purchase of 19 new trains. Eurostar he doesn’t stand by and ally himself with Deutsche Bahn. They have announced plans to jointly offer long-distance services between London and Frankfurt. Connections to Basel and Zurich are also under discussion. A defensive alliance, in fact, which unites two giants around the Italian threat.
The SNCF counterattack and the Spanish model
The French response to the penetration of FS in European markets it comes from an unexpected direction: Italy itself. From next year, the transalpine state railway company SNCF will run 15 high-speed trains in our country, representing the first direct foreign competition in the sector. The first slots will be on the Turin-Naples route via Milan and Rome. Then the rest will come. The workforce will be 400 people and selections will begin in September.
Donnarumma he stated that he sees nothing negative in this. The stakes are high. There SNCF has always defended its internal market. Entry into the French market for FS it was more complex than elsewhere. Now that the Parisian giant ventures into Italy, the risk becomes tough. If price competition were to start, passengers would certainly be happy. Maybe the budgets are a little less so. The most interesting laboratory of this great game is Madrid.
After Italy, which liberalized the railway market in 2012, the first European country to open up to competition was Spain. The opening of the Iberian market has significantly increased the number of passengers and, above all, caused fares to decrease. Three operators are competing today for the Iberian rails: the Spanish one Renfethe French one SNCF and the consortium Iryo Of FS. On this chessboard, Deutsche Bahn occupies a special position. It is the largest giant in terms of size and network, but also the one most exposed to criticism. It was once synonymous with efficiency and punctuality, but within a few years it became the company with the worst reputation in Europe.
German decline and the new luxury fleets
The numbers speak for themselves. In Germany the Deutsche Bahn does not go beyond 58.5% of punctuality, with 67 years of delays accumulated in 2025. A structural crisis that opens up space for challengers and makes the local market – traditionally closed – suddenly attractive for an operator like FSaccustomed to higher standards on high speed.
Eurostar is perhaps the most emblematic case of this new scenario. For thirty years it dominated the Channel Tunnel unchallenged, sole owner of one of the most lucrative and symbolically important routes on the continent. Today he finds himself having to simultaneously manage the pressure of FS from the South, the possible competition of Virgin Trains from the North, and the merciless comparison with its own quality indicators.
The low classification of Eurostar in Europe reflects its high prices and low punctuality. The answer to the risk of market opening is to form alliances – like the one with Deutsche Bahn – and to invest in new trains: Eurostar has unveiled a €2 billion fleet of Alstom Celestia two floors. A move that aims to consolidate the technological advantage before the competition really comes knocking on the door of the tunnel.
News You Can Use: The strengthening of European High Speed is not just an industrial challenge between railway giants, but a concrete paradigm shift for the traveller. With the opening of international routes to new operators and the introduction of the “European Metro”, travel times between major capitals will become competitive with flights, eliminating hours wasted at the airport and offering, for the first time, a real price war that could make international rail travel a luxury finally accessible to all.
