China has decided to suspend exports of critical materials and in particular of rare lands, fundamental substances for some technological and energy industries, of which Beijing is a undisputed leader. A move that puts the West in difficulty and in particular Europe. In reality, the rare lands, which are not scarce but are difficult to identify and extract, would be in the old continent. But for environmental reasons, Europeans preferred to delegate their extraction to others. But now they have to get back to digging to reduce dependence from China.
What are rare lands
The rare lands, a group of 17 chemical elements with singular names such as neo -nodimio, praseodimio, dysposio and terbio, have become the silent engine of the green and digital transition. They are essential for wind turbines that dot our landscapes, for electric vehicles engines that promise cleaner air and for advanced electronics that defines our era. Rare (ree) lands are not geologically scarce in the earth’s crust; The Cerio, for example, is more abundant than lead. The real “rarity” lies in the difficulty of finding them concentrated in economically exploitable deposits and, above all, in the extreme complexity of the processes necessary to separate the 17 elements, chemically very similar to each other are their unique magnetic, optical and catalytic properties, deriving from the particular electronic configuration, to make them irreplaceable.
The most critical application is that of high-performance permanent magnets, in particular those with neo-nodimio-firro-boro that use neo-nodimio, praseodimio, dyspose and terbio. These magnets, the most powerful known, are essential for the efficiency and miniaturization of electric vehicle engines (present in 95% of the models) and the generators of modern wind turbines, especially offshore ones. But the rare lands are also crucial in consumer electronics (smartphones, computers), in military and aerospace applications (radar, missile guide, drones), in industrial catalysts and even in medicine.
European dependence
For these strategically vital elements, the European Union depends almost totally on abroad, and in particular on a single giant: China. This dependence, which sees the EU import from China about 98% of permanent magnets of rare lands and almost all of the rare rare lands worked, represents an economic and geopolitical vulnerability that Brussels can no longer ignore. It exposes the EU to enormous risks: prices volatility, interruptions of the supply chain and, above all, the possibility that Beijing will use rare lands as a geopolitical weapon, as seems to be happening now against the USA. Without safe access to these materials, the ambitious objectives of the European Green Deal and the industrial competitiveness of the continent are in danger, risking to replace the dependence on Russian gas with a new strategic dependence from China.
New hopes
However, recent geological discoveries in northern Europe have turned on a glimmer of hope, but the way to real autonomy is long and fraught with technological, economic, environmental and social obstacles. The announcement at the beginning of 2023 of the discovery of the deposit of Per Geijer in Kiruna, in the north of Sweden, by the Lkab state company, aroused a wave of optimism. Initially defined as the largest in Europe, with estimates of over one million tons of rare lands oxides, more recent analyzes indicate an angry resource of about 1.3 million tons. Lkab is investing in a project to extract and work these resources, with the start of production expected in 2027, but the same company warns that obtaining all permits and starting the extraction may require 10-15 years.
In June 2024, the Norwegian company Rare Earthsnorway announced even more impressive estimates for the Fen complex, in the south-east of Norway, potentially defining it the largest European deposit with 8.8 million tons of estimated rare lands oxides. Ren aims to start exploitation in 2030, with the aim of covering 10% of European demand, an ambitious goal.
Other promising deposits are found in Sweden (Norra Kärr, full of Hree), Finland (the Sokli complex, with potential but also significant environmental challenges) and, above all, in Greenland. The Danish autonomous island, which ended up in the Mrino of Trump, hosts world -class deposits such as Kvanefjeld and Kringlerne, with resources estimated in billions of tons and a huge theoretical potential. However, the Kvanefjeld project is currently blocked by a local law that prohibits the extraction of uranium (present in low concentrations in the field), highlighting how political issues and social acceptance can also stop the most valid geologically projects
Long times
The real strategic knot is the temporal gap. The European question of rare lands, especially for magnets intended for electric vehicles and wind turbines, is destined to explode. The Joint Research Center of the European Commission estimates that the EU demand for wind turbines only increase by 4.5 times by 2030. The European Raw Materials Alliance provides that the world demand for rare lands for electric cars will pass from 5,000 tons of 2019 to 50,000-70,000 tons in 2030. Other estimates speak of an EU demand for oxides for magnets around 30,000 Tons in 2030. In the face of this dizzying growth, the time to develop new mines are long: 10-15 years or more from exploration to production. Even with the accelerated procedures provided for by the new European Rawmaterals Act, it is highly unlikely that the new deposits discovered in Sweden or Norway can contribute significantly to satisfy the application by 2030.
Huge challenges
Creating a chain of European value for rare lands, from the finer extraction to finished magnet, is a titanic enterprise. The challenges are enormous. The chemical separation of rare lands is extremely complex and expensive. China is decades of technological advantage and can produce at lower costs by 20-40% or more. The necessary investments are in the order of billions of euros. Mining extraction has a significant impact on the landscape and ecosystems. Chemical processing generates toxic waste. In addition, some European deposits contain natural radioactive elements, such as Uranium and Torio, which require careful and expensive management, and represent a source of concern for public opinion. Finally, obtaining permits in Europe is a notoriously long process. Brussels aims to accelerate it for the “strategic projects” 32, but it remains to be seen practical effectiveness. Perhaps the biggest challenge is to obtain the “social license to operate”. Environmental concerns, the impact on local communities and, in Scandinavia, the rights of the Sámi indigenous populations can block the projects.
The Critical Raw Materials Act
To deal with this complex situation, the EU has launched the Critical Raw Materials Act, which entered into force in May 2024.This stares of ambitious objectives for 2030: extract in the EU at least 10% of the annual consumption, work at least 40% and recycle at least 25% of strategic raw materials. In addition, it requires a maximum limit of 65% of dependence on a single third country for each strategic material. The Critical Raw Materials Act introduces the notion of “strategic projects” that will benefit from accelerated permits and facilitated access to funding, promotes geological exploration, encourages the circular economy and aims to strengthen international partnerships. But the objectives of the Critical Raw Materials Act for 2030, especially those relating to the action (10%) and processing (40%), appear extremely difficult to achieve, given the reality of industrial and mining development times. The recycling goal (25%) seems more feasible, but still requires enormous progress compared to current rates (lower than 1%).
Complete self-sufficiency is, therefore, a mirage in the short-medium term. The most realistic goal for Europe is to build greater resilience. This will require a pragmatic and multi-level approach: to develop the most promising European deposits, accepting that their contribution will be significant only after 2030, invest in massively in innovative and sustainable separation and recycling technologies, drastically accelerating the circular economy for rare terre and diversifying the import sources, tightening strategic agreements with reliable countries.
