Trump’s strategy on duties has a social motivation: the impoverishment of American workers due to globalization. And has a goal: the future of the United States
Who knows if in Winter Park, a pleasant suburb of Orlando furrowed by the “trenches” of Park Avenue – on the one hand the resorts for the rich elderly people who winter in Florida, on the other the wooden houses of the servitude without sidewalks because life is consumed on four wheels – Peppuccia Rallo still goes to the shopping center with its third -hand Ford. He bought five liters of Californian orange juice, the Corn Flakes of Arizona, the Montana milk, the Nebraska hamburgers. A autarchic expense, because in America there was everything you need to live at reasonable prices. Today so much comes from China and the factories and craftsmen who produced low added value in the States have failed. Killed by globalization and illusion that a West Virginia worker who produced steel at 30 dollars the time could be recycled in marketing. Today, if it is fine, he is the custodian in the Walmart chain – where Peppuccia still does the shopping – for ten dollars …
From this daily reality the climb of Donald Trump to the White House, the defender of the deep America, started. The man who announces a tsunami of duties, upsets the bags, then how the hurricanes of the West Coast portrays. Ninety days of respite for everyone except for China (it is the situation at the time when this article goes in print). His real goal. Also to bring Peppuccia Rallo back – soon it will be discovered who he is – to buy only “American” and give workers a future. The president’s objectives are very clear and those who are amazed do it by party taken. He wants to bring the factories back to the USA, get to zero unemployment, cancel the huge federal public debt, and to do so he knows that he must sell more on the markets and buy less. Alle the dollar as a lever, threaten duties as a trait weapon to archive the globalized world and return to the areas of influence, forcing Beijing to confront the real market dynamics. Not those who shocked, when guilty Bill Clinton and the then president of the European Commission Romano Prodi opened the doors of the World Trade Organization without a condition.
This is also why Trump has it with Europe: He considers her an old aristocratic lady who lives behind the bifolchi – so JD Vancer the vice -president tells herself the deepest States – not disdaining waltz turns with anyone. After all, it was what the first settlers thought when they sent Giorgio III and England to that country. But there are three other objectives that the new tenant of the White House intends to pursue: to release from the defense of the Old Continent, command in the Indo-Pacific, but above all to say to high finance: you must obey politics. Perhaps this is the most important place in play: to put the bridle to the overwhelming power of the lords of the stock exchange. The Scottish shower to which he forced them with the announcement and then the revocation of the duties is a strong signal.
Because to explain Trump’s action, fundamental rules must be remembered in conducting business, which is also his political vademecum: Think Big, Maximize Your Options, Use Your Leverage, Fight Back, Deliver The Goods and Have Fun (think big, make the most of your options, use your financial leverage, fight, deliver the goods and at the end).
With these simple rules we realize that in an apparent madness there is the method. “Think big,” wants to redesign the balance of the world; “Take advantage of your options to the maximum” means uses the commercial power of the largest import market; “Use your financial lever,” corresponds to depressing the bags and drops the dollar; “Fight” must be read as you all force them to treat; “Delivery the goods,” must be translated with the duties with the duties; Finally “amused” is also that Grossier expression “all kiss me the back”.
This is the Trump on the field, also for Peppuccia Rallo. She had arrived from Alcamo to Winter Park: married by prosecutor with a small manufacturer attracted by the miracle of Florida who disappeared in the third pregnancy. He made the seamstress at the hours and the Sicilian-American interpreter, for this reason whoever writes has known him.
He was among the hundred girls who welcomed the journalists in January 1983 that Fiat had brought to Orlando for the launch from Cape Canaveral of Uno: the car of the resurrection “invented” by the engineer Vittorio Ghidella. Nine million specimens were sold, almost half in the United States. The lambs “via Romiti” sent him away because he wanted to make low -cost models: the dynasty was interested in finance as the grandchild John Elkann shows today, who in Italy made the production of cars collapsed by another 35 percent.
Here: Trump’s America is that of Peppuccia, to which our country has sold one; It is a reality that effort, believes in the miracle, that it can no longer pay taxes to defend the rest of the globe. Perhaps Miss Rallo has nostalgia of the pasta with sardines, but the spaghetti Barilla produced in New Jersey and the Californian olive oil with the Golden Jubilee, excellent “stripes” stars tomatoes, compensate. She doesn’t care about the European counter -foreign, Chinese stuff can do without, it worries her inflation, she is in ambassadors for the pension fund and if the federal subsidy is missing. For this proletarian America, its president is a bit the “partner Donald”.
Behind such a strategy there are also the pages of two economists: Martin Feldestein and his pupil Stephen Miran. The first wrote: “Imagine that the single currency serves to avoid a new intra-European war means to delude yourself: there is more likely to obtain the opposite effect and that we arrive at an increase in conflicts between Europe and the United States”.
Ukraine is there, German rearmament looms, the economic bazooka threatened by Ursula von der Leyen is loaded. For the Vestals of the euro, Feldestein’s thought is poison, for Trump it is a prophecy. The “partner Donald”, the Social Democrat Trump, needs to bring back factories at home because the inequalities in the democrats of Joe Biden, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama have become unbearable. Just flow the per capita GDP. Washington DC, where you live in politics and the “Wake” has emitted, dominates $ 259 thousand each; New York, where nothing is produced if not finance, travels to 111 thousand dollars; In Mississippi just 51,450 thousand dollars, but still is worth more than that of Germany. There is a part of the country that Trump must and intends to protect: the states of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin where the factories were worked yesterday today. It is precisely JD Vance’s America – another of those who made it – that tells the silent anger of the unemployed workers. The same would need Boeing, who is late in deliveries because having no more mechanics formed in the factories he does not know where to find them.
Symmetrically, Beijing has an opposite project: Making their own internal market waterproof – the Germans know something about it with their driver’s drama – and conquer the globalized world with Renminbi. Yes, the coins.
The real war will be on currencies, not on the products, and will be played on a no longer global checkerboard, but made of areas of influence. It is no coincidence that Washington aims at bilateral agreements. The architect of the duties strategy is Stephen Miran, the brightest of Feldestein’s students. Which explains: “There is an overestimation of the dollar of at least 25 percent due to the fact that our coin is the official one of international exchanges”.
Hence Trump’s controversy with the chief of Federal Reserve Jerome Powell. The president wants to undermine rates to depreciate the dollar on the part of his central bank and encourage US exports. When Larry Fink – over ten thousand billions of dollars of assets administered with his Blackrock fund – claims that the dollar will no longer be reference coin thinking about Bitcoin, anticipates what is trying to do Miran. Who entrusts the Treasury Secretary Scott Beesent the task of reaching an agreement with all the central banks.
It will be the “Mar-A-Lago pact” to change the role to the dollar, convening China, Japan and European Central Bank. Christine Lagarde who guides the ECB is in the midst of the ford: the euro grows up, but also inflation dates back and she must decide whether to make the rates – for the governor of Bankitalia Fabio Panetta serves caution on the cuts – or to support the president of the EU Commission Ursula von der Leyen, who pushes the states to debt for a military expansion.
Stefen Miran, for his part, looks at an autarchic America, they call it the economy of populism, persuaded that “the duties will induce third countries to come to produce in the USA by revitalizing our production base. The duties must be used strategically as a negotiation tool ». The test lies in the “stop and go” that I give Trump. On the other hand, the American debt touches 36,200 billion dollars – 23.5 percent of which in a foreign hand – and the commercial deficit is a thousand billion. Analyzes Miran: “The US commercial deficit is the result of the American financial hegemony on which it has gained 10 percent richest in our population”. In economics, the communicating vases are worth: if someone earns, someone else puts us back. And his partner Donald said “enough”.
