Shopping carts and energy goods push inflation. In November, Istat recorded an increase in the national consumer price index for the entire community of 1.3% on an annual basis, an acceleration compared to +0.9% in October, and a slight decline of 0. 1% on a monthly basis. The trend, revised downwards compared to the preliminary estimate (+1.4%), marks a return to July levels. A rise driven by food and energy.
The acceleration in inflation is attributable above all to regulated energy goods, whose growth rate jumped from +3.9% to +7.4%, and to the reduction in deflation for unregulated energy goods, which went from -10 .2% to -6.6%. At the same time, food goods show a significant increase: unprocessed ones rise from +3.4% to +3.8%, while processed ones grow from 1.7% to 1.9%.
The shopping cart (food, home and personal care goods) also recorded an annual increase of +2.3%, compared to +2.0% in October. The same dynamic is observed in high purchase frequency products, which go from +1.0% to +1.6%. The most worrying data is the surge in the shopping cart, which in just three months went from an annual increase of +0.6% in August to +2.3% in November, almost quadrupling. “A freeze on Christmas consumption” according to the National Consumers Union. The association estimates that with inflation trending at +1.3% for a couple with two children there is an overall increase in the cost of living of 448 euros on an annual basis, of which 256 euros only for food products and soft drinks and 276 euros for the shopping cart.
Core inflation, which excludes energy goods and fresh food, marks an acceleration, going from +1.8% to +1.9%. Acquired inflation for 2024 is estimated at +1.0% for the general index and +2.0% for the underlying component. The data also highlights a trend increase for services related to transport (+3.5% compared to +3.0% in October) and a slight acceleration for those related to housing (+2.5%) and communications (+1.2%).
The new dynamics of food and energy prices marks a turning point compared to the deflationary trends of recent months. However, the 0.1% cyclical reduction in the general index, mainly due to the drop in the prices of recreational and cultural services (-1.2%) and durable goods (-0.6%), offers modest relief for consumers.
