How time passes when you’re having fun. And above all how much fun you have when the alarms go off and you earn good money. Very good. Davide Serra, the financier of the Algebris funds who became famous in 2012, at the time of the rise of Matteo Renzi, has seen populists and sovereignists everywhere for fifteen years and has raised dark alarms. Then, having declined the star of his Florentine friend, he threw himself on Mario Draghi, indicating him as a comet star. Finally, once Giorgia Meloni and Matteo Salvini arrived in government, given that the spread not only did not skyrocket, but actually halved, it somehow cleared them (more Lei, than Him). And Serra also says well in private about Giancarlo Giorgetti, Minister of Economy. Also because since 22 October two years ago, the day of the swearing-in of the centre-right government, the FTSE Italia banks index has grown by 153.7 percent. And from London, Algebris, with 26 billion euros of funds under management, had already invested heavily in banks for over a decade. Since the Meloni government has been in place, the Genoese Serra, 53 years old, Londoner since 1995 but Commander of the Republic at the behest of Giorgio Napolitano, has made fewer appearances and statements. It’s a shame because like his friend Matteo he is a former scout leader and has an excellent gab. Trained at UBS and Morgan Stanley, the raider has never hidden his sympathies for the centre-left. First for Renzi, obviously, then for Mario Monti at the time of the Scelta civica smoke bomb and then again for the former mayor of Florence. Ten years ago, he even took the membership card of the PD club in London, announcing the epic gesture in half Corriere della Sera. The welcome from the club secretary was memorable: “We look forward to seeing him at our meetings and to hand out leaflets for the elections.”
Immediately after the US elections, interviewed on the economic channel CNBC, he was a firefighter. «Donald Trump was an absolute newcomer the first time (…) now, already from the names circulating in the Treasury, it is clear that he is moving from series C to series A», he explained, adding that he does not even fear for the independence of the Federal Reserve «because to print more money Trump needs a strong dollar and therefore I don’t expect any headwinds in monetary policy». But above all, he made fun of the radical chic: «Even with Trump I, the woke media said that his presidency would be a disaster but this was not the case. Today he has much less room for maneuver on possible tax cuts and will aim for a large reduction in bureaucracy.”
Serra also used the trick of distinguishing between a Trump I and a Trump II to digest Conte I and Giorgia Meloni, who triumphantly entered Palazzo Chigi on 22 October 2022. The financier has always had his heart on the left and the wallet at least in the center, not to mention on the right. Shortly before the Renzi-Boschi duo crashed in the constitutional referendum, Serra went to yet another Leopolda and warned of the possible rise of the right and the Grillini: «I don’t think that having populists managing a country is in everyone’s interests» ( June 26, 2016). Two years later, in 2018, when he saw the Five Star Movement go into government with the League, which he always criticized hastily as “no euro”, he seraphicly explained that “the markets are convinced that the Five Star Movement and Matteo Salvini will not do what they have said and written for years. They have already changed their minds” (23 May 2018 a Capital Radio). And he concluded that “they act as populists to win elections, but then in government they become more realistic than the king.” In essence, Serra mirrors himself: he too acts as a companion in the electoral campaign, but then when the others win he adapts without making a plea.
While Conte II was being staged, with the Democratic Party presiding over the Treasury, Serra went to the Italia Viva summer school, in Castrocaro Terme, and sighed: «It saddens me to see that I have two passports from two countries that actually have two populist governments » (27 August 2020). And after having fallen in love with Mario Draghi’s government, when the only opposition party, Brothers of Italy, won the elections, Serra probably expected some push from the markets. All the newspapers wrote that Meloni would barely be able to make a budget and on 4 January 2023 the former London #1 PD member ruled: “The little private debt and Meloni who follows the Draghi line will save us.” Please? Of course, he explained to Press«Giorgia Meloni, unlike many allies, is intelligent. He wrote a Budget in continuity with Draghi. When he was in opposition he cried “wolf!”, then he realized that the wolf isn’t there.” Once again, Serra looked in the mirror. Wasn’t he also part of those who cried wolf? Two weeks later he is in Davos, where he has been at home for fifteen years, and given that the Meloni government sent “only” the minister Giuseppe Valditara and the deputy minister Valentino Valentini, who alone speaks more languages than all the Conte I and II governments together, Serra left with the rebuke: «It would be right for a government to send the ministers of economy, industry, development and a representative of the Prime Minister’s Office here». The financial establishment is like this: if you go there, you have to genuflect; if you don’t go, you are inadequate.
Sometimes, however, good results are achieved even without going to Davos. Let’s take the spread with Germany: on 22 October 2022 Draghi, for Serra “the best that Italy can express”, leaves the spread between 10-year BTPs and German Bunds at 233.5 points, after “taking” it from Giuseppe Conte at 91.5 points. In 26 months of government, Le Meloni, together with Giorgetti, brought it down to 113 points. In short, with the government of “populists and sovereignists”, the spread with Germany fell by 51.4 percent and that with Spain fell by 61 percent. A final fact helps to understand the newfound serenity of Serra, who for fifteen years has continued to focus on Intesa, UniCredit, Monte dei Paschi, Banco Bpm and all the major Italian banks. Between the end of October 2022 and today, the banking stock index rose by more than 150 percent. Algebris (and his brothers) are gentlemen who enjoy being silent. The Genoese financier, however, corrected his approach already after a year: «The markets were worried (…) but then especially Giorgia Meloni and Giancarlo Giorgetti seemed serious people and the government started very well, in continuity with the Draghi agenda» (19 September 2023).
The conversion of the former Leopolda star, who in the meantime has also launched a true patriotic proposal such as forcing pension funds to invest a minimum amount in Italian securities, was completed in recent days on two fronts. First he praised Banco Bpm and his beloved MPS, effectively espousing the idea of the third banking hub sponsored by the government, and then he defended Elon Musk by pointing out that whatever one thinks «he will end up in the history books for having revolutionized the car and having surpassed NASA in the space economy.” He also said more or less the same things about Renzi, when he created the Jobs Act, but in the case of the Tesla owner it is clear that a solidarity between geniuses has arisen. n
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